SPC AC 240522
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the
central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of
the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response
to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar
front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across
southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern
Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately
for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of
the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least
slightly elevated in nature.
Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust
thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will
surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern
for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the
coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears
too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
SPC AC 240713
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.
...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.
...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.
Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 240830
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.
...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift
southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A
second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great
Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast
to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern
US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and
western portions of the country with increasingly strong
northwesterly flow.
At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong
high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves
offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread
winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust
inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak
lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential
here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely
over the US on Monday.
..Lyons.. 01/24/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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