SPC AC 250507
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday.
...Western OK...
An upper ridge axis will extend from TX to MN on Friday, with an
upper trough rotating eastward out of NM into the southern Plains.
Considerable coverage of thunderstorms has developed this evening
over NM, and is expected to spread northeastward overnight into west
TX and western OK. The associated high-clouds will slow/lessen
daytime heating. A few of the 00z CAM solutions indicate some
concern for a few strong storms across parts of western OK on Friday
afternoon. If strong heating can occur, these storms could pose a
risk of locally damaging gusts. Due to the approaching cloud cover,
will hold off on severe probabilities at this time and re-evaluate
in later outlooks.
...Central/Northeast NM...
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present on Friday
over much of the southwest US, with widespread weak CAPE leading to
scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms across much of NM.
Forecast soundings over central/northeast NM show some risk of hail
in the stronger cells. However, parameters are rather weak for
severe-caliber hail so will forego an upgrade at this time.
..Hart/Weinman.. 09/25/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
SPC AC 250545
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern
Plains Saturday.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough and mid-level cutoff low will meander along the West
and East Coasts, respectively, while an upper ridge begins to build
over the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). A mid-level impulse will
traverse the upper ridge and eject from the Rockies, encouraging
weak surface low development over the southern Plains. Modest
low-level warm-air/moisture advection with a strengthening low-level
jet, along with the approach of the aforementioned impulse, will
foster enough overlapping vertical wind shear and buoyancy to
support an isolated severe threat across the southern Plains.
...Central and Southern Plains...
By afternoon, surface temperatures should warm into the 80s F, amid
60s F dewpoints, beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE across much of central and eastern KS into
western TX. As the mid-level impulse approaches and low-level
warm-air advection intensifies, thunderstorms should initiate amid a
vertical wind profile characterized by some veering and
strengthening with height. Given 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear
expected, multicells and a couple of transient supercells will be
the primary storm modes, capable of isolated severe wind and hail.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 250723
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will meander just off of the Mid-Atlantic
coastline while upper ridging persists over the central U.S. and an
upper trough amplifies west of the Rockies on Sunday. Thunderstorms
will be possible across the central and northern Rockies ahead of an
embedded mid-level impulse, which will be accompanied by cooler
temperatures aloft and deep-layer ascent. Thunderstorms will also be
possible in the Plains states in association with low-level moisture
advection accompanying surface lee troughing. Across the northern
High Plains, strong vertical wind shear will accompany the
approaching mid-level impulse, which may ultimately support an
instance or two of marginally severe wind or hail. However, buoyancy
will be negligible to poor, so organized severe potential is
unlikely at this time, precluding the need for probabilities this
outlook.
..Squitieri.. 09/25/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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