SPC AC 240522

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

   ...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast...

   Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
   off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the
   central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of
   the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response
   to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar
   front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across
   southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model
   guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern
   Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings
   depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately
   for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of
   the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least
   slightly elevated in nature.

   Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust
   thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will
   surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern
   for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the
   coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears
   too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.

   ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z