No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 24 08:33:01 UTC 2026.MD 0040 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Northwest/Southwest/North-Central
TX...South-Central/Southeast OK
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 240729Z - 241130Z
SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain and sleet is expected to persist
from southwest Texas into north-central Texas and
south-central/southeast Oklahoma throughout the morning.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations around the region currently place
the freezing line from Bonham (in Fannin County TX) southwestward
through northwest Tarrant County before diving more
south-southwestward through San Saba, TX. This orientation puts much
of the DFW Metroplex just above freezing, with some temperatures
actually increasing a degree or two amid light precipitation and
resultant wet bulbing. Even so, continued cold-air advection is
anticipated, with temperatures eventually dropping below freezing
later this morning. Those areas already below freezing will also see
temperatures continue to decrease throughout the morning.
Current regional radar imagery shows some banding across
north-central TX (northwest of the Metroplex), where strong 850mb
warm-air advection is ongoing. Correlation coefficient from KFWS
suggests most of this is sleet. Additionally, a large area of light
precipitation continues to build upstream of the region amid modest
lift attendant to a subtle lead shortwave trough and continued
isentropic ascent. Expectation is for precipitation to continue
across this region for the next several hours, with sleet as the
prominent p-type across southwest/northwest TX and south-central OK.
Freezing rain will likely become more common across north-central TX
over the next hour or two, with another transition to sleet possible
later this morning as the surface continues to cool.
..Mosier.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33530002 34539740 34689541 33419497 32439587 31120069
32130113 33530002
MD 0039 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Central and Northern
Arkansas.
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 240718Z - 241115Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall, with rates up to 1 inch per hour, are
expected to develop from parts of far eastern Oklahoma eastward
across much of central and northern Arkansas over the next several
hours. The snow should be mixed with sleet over parts of central
Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough
in the western U.S., with a belt of strong zonal westerly flow over
much of the central and eastern U.S. Lift is currently maximized
over the Ark-La-Tex and southern Ozarks, where a shortwave trough
appears to moving through the flow, and the right exit region of an
expansive mid-level jet is located. Within this zone, radar shows a
large area winter precipitation, which is organized into an
east-to-west band. This band is being supported by strong lift
associated with the northern edge of a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet.
As the low-level jet shifts eastward across south-central Arkansas
over the next 3 to 6 hours, isentropic lift will become maximized in
parts of central and northern Arkansas. Snowfall rates are expected
to peak near 1 inch per hour within the heaviest part of the band.
On southern edge of the band, a sleet/snow mix is expected. The
potential for heavy precipitation should continue over the next four
to six hours.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35809038 35429017 35139019 34919024 34569051 34479078
34429160 34439365 34489446 34619484 34899502 35169505
35579494 35969445 36069279 35989086 35809038
MD 0038 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR THE TEXARKANA REGION INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Areas affected...The Texarkana Region into southern Arkansas and far
western Mississippi
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 240526Z - 241030Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase across the
Texarkana region into southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi
through the overnight hours. Freezing rain rates between 0.05 to 0.1
inch/hour are possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures across southern AR into the
Texarkana region are now mostly below freezing despite a slight
abatement of near-surface cold air advection. Several ASOS/AWOS
stations, mPING reports, and web cams have been reporting
predominantly freezing rain with pockets of embedded sleet over the
past couple of hours. Looking upstream, a heavier precipitation band
is noted migrating eastward across north TX/southern OK attendant to
a focused zone of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent at around
850 mb. This uptick in low-level warm advection is noted in regional
VWPs as a steady enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph, which supports
recent analyses and forecasts.
Further strengthening of warm advection/frontogenetical ascent at
around the 850 mb level is expected per recent guidance as the
precipitation band spreads east into southern AR over the next 4-6
hours. Strong ascent combined with persistent warm temperatures at
around 700 mb will maintain a broad swath of freezing rain across
the Texarkana region into southern AR, and will likely promote the
onset of freezing rain to far western MS. Freezing rain rates on the
order of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely, but localized rates up to 0.1
inch/hour appear possible across southwest/south-central AR where
CAM consensus for the past few hours has depicted the highest QPF
amounts (which appear reasonable based on observed banding
upstream).
..Moore.. 01/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32889136 32999414 33229473 33589517 33919537 34229537
34489517 34579469 34619391 34609290 34609163 34559112
34399070 34179042 33959036 33219058 32999086 32889136
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the
central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of
the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response
to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar
front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across
southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern
Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately
for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of
the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least
slightly elevated in nature.
Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust
thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will
surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern
for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the
coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears
too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026
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