en Español

372 
ABNT20 KNHC 251718
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Gonzalo, located about 160 miles east of the southernmost Cabo 
Verde Islands, and on Tropical Storm Fay, located well to the 
west-southwest of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO 
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.  
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo are issued under WMO 
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart
  

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251555
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 30.1N 42.5W at 25/1500 UTC
or 900 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are occurring within 
60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered 
strong convection is noted from 29N-31N between 40W-44W. A 
gradual turn to the west-southwest then southwest at a slower 
forward speed is expected over the next few of days. Some slight 
strengthening is possible over the next few hours. Gradual 
weakening, however, is still expected through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.7N 22.6W at 25/1200
UTC or 100 nm E of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving
NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Peak seas are near 20 ft and a 0900 UTC altimeter pass indicated
seas to 15 ft between and just to the north of the eastern Cabo
Verde Islands. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends 
from 10N-21N between 17W-22W. The NNW motion is expected to 
continue over the next few days, with a slower forward speed this 
weekend. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A 
gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight and continue 
through the weekend. Swells generated b y the storm are expected 
to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay
and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from 31N72W across the 
N Bahamas and to the Florida Straits. Seas are 8 to 13 ft 
northwest of a line from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida 
peninsula north of 26N. The highest seas of 12-13 ft are occurring
north of 30N between 76W-80W as well as up to 12 ft are over the 
Gulf Stream within 60 NM of the Florida peninsula north of 28N.
Buoy 41010 at 28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is 
showing 11 ft seas as of 1520 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and 
rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat 
morning, before starting to decrease. 

Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to 
upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm
sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are 
present. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical 
moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, 
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still 
some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest 
rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme 
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, 
western Honduras, and El Salvador. Heavy rainfall across these 
regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash 
flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as
well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving 
west at 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with
it at the time.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N 
into central Colombia, moving westward at 15-20 kt. There is no 
significant convection associated with it at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 16N17W
through Tropical Storm Gonzalo to 08N34W. The ITCZ begins at
08N134W to 09N56W. See T.S. Gonzalo in the Special Features 
section for information on convection. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 27N89W,
where it becomes stationary to the E Texas coast. Winds across the
Gulf are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. No significant deep
convection is occurring this morning over the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move E of the Gulf tonight 
into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front 
through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early 
next week.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is
expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of 
Central America through tomorrow.

The cold front north of the Caribbean has reduced the pressure
gradient across the Caribbean with trades only gentle to moderate
locally fresh. Seas are 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring over the SW Caribbean south of 11N due to the monsoon
trough from the northeast Pacific.

For the forecast, a weak pressure will support moderate to fresh 
trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean 
with moderate seas elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical 
Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. 

A cold front extends from 31N72W across the N Bahamas and to the
Florida Straits. Winds ahead of the front north of 26N are SW
fresh to locally strong, while winds behind the front north of 27N
are N fresh to locally strong. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northwest of a
line from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida peninsula north
of 26N. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
occurring within 300 NM east of the front north of 23N. There also
is a surface trough extending from 24N64W to 25N55W with scattered
moderate convection occurring from 22N-25N between 55W-60W. The
weak pressure gradient between ridging with the Bermuda-Azores 
High well north of our waters to lower pressure along the ITCZ is 
forcing only gentle to moderate trades over the tropical and
subtropical north Atlantic. Seas away from the two tropical storms
and cold front are 3-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
Bermuda to near central Cuba Sat night before starting to weaken.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along 
the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very 
rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before 
starting to decrease.

$$ 
Landsea/Levine
  

en Español

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251711
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Polo, located a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, 
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located 
a couple hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so to the 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Afterward, environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week 
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, 
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles 
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week.  
The system is forecast to move generally northeastward, remaining 
well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
  

606 
AXPZ20 KNHC 251543
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 108.5W, or about 290
nm SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, at 25/1500 UTC, moving west at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas 
are currently around 44 ft (13.5 m). Polo is revealing a clear 
eye feature on satellite imagery. A solid ring of very cold cloud
top temperatures (colder than -75 degree Celsius surrounds the 
eye. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the
center. Polo is forecast to maintain its present motion today, 
followed by a gradual turn to the northwest on Sat and north on 
Sun. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Monday. On the 
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur 
on Mon. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible over
the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening should begin by Sat. For a 
complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will 
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and 
toward Baja California Sur today and into the weekend. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, 
and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 17.9N 123.7W at 25/1500 UTC,
moving north-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently around 37 ft (11.5 m).
satellite imagery reveals that Odaly's eye has become much 
better defined during the overnight hours. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Odalys is 
expected to turn to the north over the next couple of days. 
Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale. This intensity is expected to persist overnight, 
before gradual weakening is forecast heading into the weekend. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low 
pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or 
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward 
to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation
through the next 7 days. 

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low
pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into
Central America and adjacent southern Mexico through tonight,
leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. 
Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, 
the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of 
Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure 
moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early 
next week, it has a potential for tropical development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure in  
northwest Colombia westward to across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea, to across northern Costa Rica, then to 10N85W to to 11.5N90.5W
and to 14N95W. It resumes SW of Odalys at 12N127W to 12N133W and 
to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
from 06N to 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 135W-140W, and 
within 60 nm south of the trough between 129W-135W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys located well to the 
west-southwest of the offshore waters, and on low pressure
forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec, that has
the potential for tropical development as early as this weekend.

Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of
the waters away from Polo as indicated in overnight satellite
altimeter data passes.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.3N 
108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves
to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W Sat afternoon
with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.0N 
113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 
135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to near 23.3N 
113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 
115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W late Mon 
night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Hurricane 
Odalys is near 17.6N 124.0W, or about 850 nm west-southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast 
at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, 
and the minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Odalys will move to near 
18.0N 123.7W this afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with 
maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then 
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with 
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to 
become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 22.5N 
122.1W late Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions should be 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system 
moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Hazardous marine 
conditions of very rough seas are expected over the Baja California 
waters this weekend into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 09N,
and mostly gentle to moderate south-soutwhest winds south of 
09N as seen in overnight available satellite scatterometer data 
passes. Locally rough seas are over the western offshore waters 
of Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near southwestern 
Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas 
nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands. 

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail 
across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly
moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to 
the west-southwest of the offshore waters.

Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to move near 
near 17.3N 108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken
as it moves to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W 
Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, 
to near 20.0N 113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 
110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to 
near 23.3N 113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 
kt gusts 115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W 
late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt.

Hurricane Odalys is forecast to move to near 18.0N 123.7W this 
afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with maximum 
sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then 
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with 
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to 
become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 
22.5N 122.1W late Sun night. Odalys will then weaken to a 
remnant low near 21.7N 121.2W early on Tue.

Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected to develop 
south of the monsoon trough over the weekend west of about 130W 
in response to developing broad area of low pressure well to the
east-sooutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Seas are expected to 
steadily build with these winds, possibly reaching a range of 7 
to 10 ft.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form within
the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Afterward environmental conditions should be favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves 
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.

$$
Konarik
  

en Español

000
ACPN50 PHFO 251711
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Hurricane Nolo, located
a couple hundred miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week.
The system is forecast to move generally northeastward, remaining
well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN