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Tropical Atlantic & Pacific Basin Outlooks & Discussions
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
en Español
000
ABNT20 KNHC 260513
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Atlantic - Caribbean - Gulf of Mexico
000
AXNT20 KNHC 260428
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb
Azores High and lower pressures over northern Africa currently
support strong to near gale-force NE winds between the Canary
Islands and the coast of Morocco. These winds were confirmed by
scatterometer data from 0200 UTC tonight. Winds are expected to
remain at or near gale-force for the next few hours before
diminishing later tonight. Accordingly, Meteo France has issued a
Gale Warning for the Agadir Zone until 26/03 UTC.
For more details, please refer to Meteo-France's website at:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 45-46W, from
08N to 22N, moving W at 12-20 kt. A broad mid level cyclonic
circulation can be seen in PW animations. Convection near this
wave is discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.
A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 62W-63W, moving W at 15-20 kt. An upper level low is
centered to the NW and is shearing associated convection to the E
of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to
19N between 55W and 61W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has been added to the 0000 UTC
surface map, along 73W, moving westward at 15-20 kt, and is well
depicted in PW animations. The wave is moving through a zone of
dry and sinking air across the central basin, and no associated
convection is seen over water at this time.
A Caribbean tropical wave previously along 75W is racing westward
and has nearly merged with the tropical wave ahead of it across
Central America along about 90W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
to 12N23W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to 07.5N44W to
05.5N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is exiting
Africa from 10N to 17N E of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring from 08.5N to 14N between 20W and
27W, and 08N to 12.5N between 29W and 40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N between 40W and 52W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28.5N88W.
Evening thunderstorms across central Florida have shifted westward
to the coast near Tampa Bay and adjacent coastal waters within 60
nm and are weakening quickly. An upper level low is centered over
the Bay of Campeche N of 20N, and is supporting a cluster of
moderate to strong convection shifting westward off the Yucatan
Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The surface high
is promoting light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin N
of 21N, where seas are 3 ft or less. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds are occurring along the W coast of the Yucatan, in associated
with the evening thermal trough there. Seas there area 3 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will
promote gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin
through early next week. Fresh winds will continue offshore the
western Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and then will pulse to moderate
N winds each evening and night through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate convection dots the waters of the NW Caribbean
from western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel southward across the
Gulf of Honduras, to just offshore of NE Nicaragua. This activity
is occurring behind a tropical wave now across the eastern
Pacific along about 90W.
The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and
the western Atlantic ridge extending into central Florida is
forcing fresh to strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean,
generally S of 16N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft between 72W and 80W.
Across the eastern basin, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
prevail, with moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft. Across the NW Caribbean,
NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. The
exception there is fresh E wind across the interior Gulf of
Honduras, where seas are locally 6 to 8 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds will continue
across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The ridge will weaken and
shift east by Mon, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the
central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas
will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as
the ridge builds north of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough in the W Atlantic combined with upper level
divergence from an upper level trough N of the region are aiding
in persistent scattered moderate convection from 28N to 31N
between 68W and 72W. Isolated moderate convection dots the
central and northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is
also occurring from the E coasts of the Lesser Antilles to 54W,
behind a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean
described above. Another upper low and surface trough extends
into the north central waters, and is promoting scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 25N to 29N between 47W
and 59W. Elsewhere at the surface, the pressure gradient between
the Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ and monsoon
trough is producing moderate to fresh trades along with moderate
seas across much of the Atlantic S of 26W. E of 33W, the pressure
gradient tightens and is producing fresh to strong NE winds along
with rough seas of 8-10 ft impacting waters N of 18N, including
near the Canary Islands where NE winds are strong to near-gale
force. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
shift southeastward through early this week, allowing a cold
front to move offshore the SE U.S. Sun, then stall along about 31N.
SW winds will increase and producing building seas N of 25N
through the middle of next week between this stalled front and
the Atlantic ridge to the east.
$$
Stripling
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
en Español
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260513
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane
Genevieve, located well southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
Well Southwest of Hawaii (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well west-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands are
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system while it moves generally
westward at about 10 mph toward the International Date Line, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the western Pacific basin
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be
found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan
Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.html
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Eastern Pacific
538
AXPZ20 KNHC 260403
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Fausto is centered near 19.5N 138.8W, or about 920 nm
east of Hilo, Hawaii at 26/0300 UTC, moving west at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are to around
34 ft. satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall
structure has changed little during the past several hours. The
imagery reveals numerous moderate to strong convection within
120 nm of the center, except 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Fausto is
forecast move west of 140W on Sun morning, however, fresh to
near gale-force winds will linger from 18N to 25N west of 136W
along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. These conditions will subside by
early Mon afternoon as Fausto continues to well west of the
discussion area.
Recently upgraded Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 12.1N
106.7W, or roughly about 430 nm south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Peak seas are to 27
ft. satellite imagery that Genevieve is quickly becoming bettor
organized and intensifying. Well-established upper-level outflow
is noted in nearly all of the quadrants. The imagery reveals
banding features wrapping around its center. Numerous strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 60 nm in the
SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
denotes an outer band within 90 nm of a line from 10N105W to
07N108W, and within 30 nm of a line from 07N108W to 5.5N112W and
to 06N117W. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few
days. Rapid intensification is expected during the next day or
so, and Genevieve is forecast to become a major hurricane by late
Sun. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will likely reach southern
portions of the Baja California Peninsula Sun night or on Mon.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane by
tonight and a major hurricane by Monday.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 90W north of 03N to inland central
Guatemala. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are near its southern portion, and over some
sections of Guatemala.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over northwest
Colombia west-southwestward to just north of Panama, to across
southern Costa Rica, to 09N84W, to 06N90W and to 08N95W. It
resume south of Hurricane Genevieve near 09.5N107W to 08N114W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N120W and to 09N127W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 117W-124W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters
west of Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and
relatively lower pressures over Baja California is supporting
moderate to fresh northwest winds over the waters west of Baja
California, primarily north of Punta Eugenia, mostly gentle
northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas over
the waters west of Baja California are 4 to 6 ft in northwest
swell, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft north of
Punta Eugenia. Light and variable winds are over waters southeast
of Baja California to near 18N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in
south to southwest swell. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
in the northern outer periphery of now Hurricane Genevieve are
present south of 18N along with seas 7 to 11 ft in southeast to
south swell.
For the forecast, Genevieve will rapidly intensify as it moves
to near 13.0N 108.5W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds
gusts 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 14.2N 110.5W Sun evening, to
near 15.3N 112.2W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 110 kt
gusts 135 kt, to near 16.5N 113.7W Mon evening, to near 17.3N
115.0W Tue morning, and to near 18.1N 116.4W Tue evening with
maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Genevieve is
forecast to change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.3N
119.7W Wed evening. As Genevieve tracks in a general west-
northwestward to northwestward motion west of Baja California Sur
next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to
its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja
California Norte. Swells from Genevieve will impact just about
all of the offshore waters outside the Gulf of California, except
for its entrance through next week building seas over these
waters to 12 ft and greater.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh northeast winds continue across the Papagayo region and
extending downwind to near 90W, and northward to southern
Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Scattered showers
are over most of the offshore waters north of Costa Rica.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S
to SW swell.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse across the Papagayo
region well into next week. Moderate to rough seas will accompany
these winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the
Gulf of Panama into early next week with slight to moderate seas.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell
are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the
Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight
seas are forecast. The southwest swell will subside around
midweek.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto and on recently upgraded Hurricane Genevieve.
Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of
the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate
circulation of Fausto extend northward to 27N, with seas of
7 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters
between Baja California and Fausto, and also north of 15N west of
120W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail.
Cross-equatorial southwest swell over the waters south of
about 04N between 104W and 131W is providing for 8 to 10 ft
seas over that portion of the area.
A surface trough is analyzed between Fausto and Genevieve along
a position from 10N129W to 01N130W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 01N to 10N between 124W and 133W.
For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to near to 19.8N 140.5W
with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, and to well west
of the area near 20.7N 145.5W by Mon morning while gradually
weakening. Hurricane Genevieve will rapidly intensify as it
moves to near 13.0N 108.5W Sun morning with maximum sustained
winds gusts 80 kt gusts 100 kt, to near 14.2N 110.5W Sun evening,
to near 15.3N 112.2W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds
110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 16.5N 113.7W Mon evening, to near
17.3N 115.0W Tue morning, and to near 18.1N 116.4W Tue evening
with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Genevieve is
forecast to change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.3N
119.7W Wed evening.
The cross-equatorial swell mentioned earlier will decay
early next week.
$$
Aguirre
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Tropical Weather Discussion
Central Pacific
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en Español
000
ACPN50 PHFO 260513
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2026
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane
Genevieve, located well southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
Well Southwest of Hawaii (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well west-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands are
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system while it moves generally
westward at about 10 mph toward the International Date Line, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the western Pacific basin
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
&&
Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be
found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan
Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.html
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce
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