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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 260645
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over northern
Mexico and West Texas today as a subtle, mid-level shortwave trough
shifts eastward across the Four Corners region before ejecting
eastward across the central Great Plains. A second mid-level
shortwave trough will shift southeastward across the upper Great
Lakes region. At the surface, a strong cold front will advance
southward across the Great Plains and Great Basin while a deepening
surface low develops southward in the lee of the Rockies.
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Dry, downslope flow will be favored ahead of the advancing cold
front, with sustained west-southwest winds of 20-25 mph expected to
overlap very low RH of 5-15% across much of central/eastern New
Mexico into portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, northwestern
Oklahoma, and extreme southern Kansas. Farther south, very low RH of
5-10% will overlap westerly winds of around 20 mph (locally higher
in terrain favored areas) in the lee of the Sacramento Mountains.
With record breaking temperatures in the middle to upper 90s F
aiding in rapid drying of finer fuels through the afternoon,
critical fire weather conditions are expected across these areas.
The cold front pushing south across the southern Plains will bring
an abrupt northerly wind shift to the region through early Friday,
with potential impacts to existing wildfires or potential new
ignitions.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected farther north across
much of southeastern Colorado and western Kansas where westerly
surface winds of around 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap receptive
fuels and RH of 10-15%. Farther to the east across portions of
south-central Kansas, western Oklahoma, and into portions of Texas
Big Country, RH values are forecast to be more marginal (ranging
between 20-30%) owing to some northward moisture return. However,
strong south-southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph and receptive
fuels should still support elevated fire weather concerns. A strong
low-level jet (30-40+ kts at 850 mb) coupled with boundary layer
mixing will also support occasional gusts of 35-45 mph across
portions of this area, especially from western Oklahoma into
south-central Kansas.
...Eastern Great Basin...
Sustained westerly surface winds will increase to 15-25 mph (locally
higher) ahead of the approaching cold front amid drying fuels and RH
values of 10-20%. This will support elevated fire weather conditions
across portions of the eastern Great Basin southward into portions
of the Southwest.
...Southwest to south-central Kansas...
A very dry boundary layer will be in place across southern Kansas
before the cold front arrives late this afternoon. The cold front,
impinging mid-level shortwave trough, and some mid-level moisture
may support the development of isolated, dry high-based showers and
thunderstorms across portions of southwest and south-central Kansas
by late this afternoon/evening. Minimal precipitation over a very
receptive fuelscape preceded by record to near-record high
temperatures near 100 F should support a higher ignition efficiency
across the area.
...Northeastern/east-central Colorado...
Latest guidance indicates that the approaching mid-level shortwave
trough coupled with mid-level moisture and a deep, dry boundary
layer (LCLs as high as 3-4 km AGL) may support the development of
isolated, dry showers and thunderstorms amid meager instability
(50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across portions of northeastern and
east-central Colorado this afternoon. Minimal precipitation and
critical fuels should support elevated ignition efficiency.
..Chalmers.. 03/26/2026
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 260735
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging centered over northern Mexico and West Texas
will remain in place through D2/Friday as a mid-level shortwave
trough advances southeastward across the Great Lakes region and into
the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore of
the Gulf Coast while strong high pressure shifts southeastward from
the northern Great Plains into the Midwest.
...Central Great Plains...
Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast amid a dry air mass
will encompass portions of the central/southern Great Plains on
Friday. Sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph coupled with reduced RH
values of 20-25% (locally as low as 15%) and receptive fuels are
expected to support a broad area of elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns from eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa
southward to western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Strong 850 mb
flow of 30-40+ kts will also support the potential for occasional
gusts to 30-35 mph, especially across the southern portions of the
Elevated highlights.
...Eastern Arizona into western New Mexico...
A backdoor cold front is forecast to move south-southwestward
through portions of the Southwest on Friday. Latest guidance
indicates southeasterly winds will strengthen to 15-25 mph across
portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico following the
frontal passage, especially in the vicinity of the White Mountains
and Gila Region. While RH values are forecast to increase behind the
front, there may be a brief period of time where the increased winds
overlap lingering low RH of 15-20%, supporting the potential for
localized elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty regarding the
timing of the frontal passage as well as the duration of overlap of
winds/RH precludes the addition of Elevated highlights at this time,
but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers.. 03/26/2026
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An eastward translating upper-level trough will exit the eastern
U.S. by the weekend, with a broad surface high pressure settling
into the OH River Valley by Day 5 Sunday. A building ridge across
the West will continue to support near record heat across much of
the Southwestern U.S. through the end of the week as a trough
impinges upon the West Coast by early next week. At the surface, a
strong cold front should elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday as dry,
post-frontal flow impacts this region. Dry southerly flow returns on
Day 4/Saturday across much of the southern and central Plains as
surface high pressure pushes into the eastern U.S. and lee troughing
evolves in the northern High Plains. Mid and upper-level moisture
entering the Southwest ahead of the next trough could bring
high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of NM and AZ over
the weekend, increasing opportunities for ignitions over
unseasonably dry fuels.
...Day 3/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast will encompass
portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. The
gusty north-northeast winds accompanying a very dry air mass
centered across portions of eastern KS, southwestward into OK and
the TX Panhandle should support a fire weather threat across this
region. A northeastward expansion of the existing 40% probabilities
was warranted based on latest model guidance and receptive fuels in
place.
...Day 4/Saturday - Southern/Central Plains and Southeast...
Fire weather impacts from the dry post-frontal environment will
extend into portions of the Southeast by Day 4/Saturday. Appreciable
northeast winds amid low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels
supports continuation of the 40% critical probabilities for portions
of the Carolinas, GA, southern TN and northwestern AL.
...Day 5/Sunday - Arizona and New Mexico...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture from the Pacific and
emerging daytime instability should support high-based convection
across portions of the Southwest. Exceptionally warm and dry
conditions preceding and leading up to this event has aided in fuel
receptivity to spread. As such, introduced a 10% probability for
isolated dry thunderstorms for portions of eastern AZ and western
NM, where drier fuels exist. Farther north, warming temperatures and
an increasingly dry boundary layer should align with breezy west
winds across portions of southeastern WY into western NE and far
northeastern CO where minimal precipitation is expected to fall over
the next few days. Dry fuels should largely still be in place by Day
5/Sunday across much of the High Plains so introduced 40% critical
probabilities where the dry fuels coexist with breezy west winds and
dry conditions. The high-based convection and dry thunderstorm
threat could linger into early next week as the trough enters the
western U.S. but generally cooler temperatures and higher relative
humidity could reduce overall fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 03/25/2026
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