Hot Springs Village, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

433
FXUS64 KLZK 241701
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1101 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- A strong winter storm will continue to bring significant impacts
  to the region this weekend, with significant snowfall possible
  over the northern portion of the state, snow-sleet accumulations
  across central and southern Arkansas, and impactful ice
  accumulations over far southern to southeast Arkansas.

- Dangerously cold conditions will accompany winter weather
  through this weekend and into early next week, with sub-zero
  minimum wind chill values possible Saturday through Monday
  mornings.

- Hazardous travel conditions are expected across the state
  through the duration of this winter storm, and into next week,
  as multiple thaw and freeze cycles will unfold, resulting in
  slippery morning road conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The well advertised major winter storm that is set to impact a
large portion of the central to eastern U.S. has brought
widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain conditions to the
region over the last several hours. Latest model output continues
to nudge the warm nose further north later today and into tonight,
resulting in more areas that might experience some brief periods
of precipitation phase changes during this general period across
central to northern Arkansas, but overall amounts of each phase
remain the same regardless of location. This first wave has begun,
but there looks to be a brief window late this afternoon and
evening where there will be little to no precip accumulating,
prior to the second wave beginning overnight tonight and
persisting into and through Sunday afternoon. An Extreme Cold
Warning has been extended through Monday night, as latest guidance
indicates the much colder Arctic air lingering a bit longer.

The following sections depict what to expect for different
areas of the region into this upcoming week:

Northern Arkansas (Harrison, Mountain Home, Hardy, Batesville, and
Mountain View):

Heavy snow has moved into to the region, and should be the primary
mode of precipitation throughout the event. This current round of
snow should bring around 4 to 6 inches of snow through this
morning, with the second round this evening and through Sunday
bringing an additional 4 to 8 inches, with highest amounts
favoring higher terrain features like the Boston Mountains.
Reasonable worst case scenario snowfall amounts continue to hover
around 8-12 inches across lower elevations, and 12-15 inches for
higher elevations.

For the second round, some portions of the region, especially the
eastern counties of northern Arkansas, may see snow change over
to sleet for a 6-12 hour period during the overnight hours tonight
and into tomorrow morning prior to changing back over to snow as
the much colder air aloft filters in on Sunday. Temperatures
mostly in the teens to low 20s for highs and single digits to
below zero through Monday is expected.

Central Arkansas (Little Rock, Russellville, Conway, Hot Springs,
and Searcy):

Moderate to heavy snow and sleet have resulted in several inches
of accumulations thus far early this morning. The snow/sleet line
as of 2 am continues to hover just south of Little Rock when
looking at the KLZK radar CC dual-pol product, with the 06z
sounding from LZK depicting a warm nose that is right around or
just above freezing aloft around 800 mb. With warmer air aloft
anticipated to push into central Arkansas, currently expecting a
changeover to sleet to occur from south to north over the next
several hours for the entire region. This first round on the front
end has resulted in snow for the northern portions (e.g. North
Little Rock) and periods of freezing rain initially and now
primarily sleet for the southern portions (e.g. Hot Springs), with
the entire region receiving sleet later this morning and
continuing through this afternoon. The second round will bring
more sleet on the front end, with lower end chances of some
freezing rain mixing in at times, favoring this evening and into
the early overnight hours tonight. After tonight, with much colder
air pushing in from the north, a changeover from sleet/freezing
rain to snow is expected to occur tomorrow morning and into the
afternoon hours before dissipating by tomorrow evening.

The highest snow amounts seem to be favoring this first round, as
there has been decent accumulations thus far, and based on radar
and RAP model trends (e.g. higher QPF trends for the short term),
this heavier snow/sleet may continue through the rest of the
overnight hours. Thus, the 75th to 90th percentile outlook of up to
3 additional inches of snow/sleet may be the most reasonable
expectation through the rest of the overnight hours. After 6 am,
the lesser intensity sleet should be the primary mode through
this afternoon. All of this to say, this first round could yield
in excess of 4-6 inches of snow/sleet as a reasonable scenario at
this point. The second round should bring an additional 2-4 inches
of wintry mix accumulations, with higher amounts favoring northern
areas, such as Conway.

High temperatures over the next few days will hover as cold as the
teens today to the lower to mid-20s by Monday, with overnight lows
dipping into the single digits to near zero, coldest on Sunday and
Monday nights.

Southern Arkansas (Pine Bluff, Monticello, Arkadelphia, and
Camden):

Much more widespread freezing rain areas have been observed up to
this point across southern Arkansas. This will unfortunately pose
the worst impacts as significant ice accumulations continue to be
advertised, especially the far southeastern portions of the
region. Locations such as Pine Bluff and Camden have seen the bulk
of precipitation up to one tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent
thus far (mix of freezing rain and sleet), with the axis of
precipitation gradually shifting southward this morning. However,
this first round may actually be the lesser of the two rounds in
terms of precipitation amounts, as the main axis of the more
robust precipitation remains mainly to the north. Sleet with a mix
of freezing rain will favor the northern portions, while
primarily freezing rain will favor the southern portions for both
rounds of precipitation.

Current storm totals of ice remains anywhere from 0.10-0.25"
across the northern portions and in excess of 0.50-0.75" for the
southern portions. For areas that favor sleet accumulations, storm
totals of 2-4 inches are currently forecasted.

For temperatures, highs in the lower to mid-20 are favored and
lows dipping into the single digits are expected through Monday.

Beyond Monday:

Glancing at Day 4 and onward, there will be a gradual warming
trend, but with the majority of the region hovering around
freezing for highs through the middle of the week may extend
impacts into at least the middle of this upcoming week,
especially on roadways. The overall weather pattern remains zonal
through the middle of the week, with another Arctic airmass
attempting to reinforce colder temperatures mid to late week. The
latest trends seem to favor an eastward shift of this trough,
which would keep the colder temperatures to the north and east.

Another Pacific trough amplifying and progressing eastward along
with phasing with the subtropical jet late in the week could
provide another opportunity for some unsettled weather, but
confidence is quite low given the current model spread. However,
this will be worth monitoring model trends over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Expect flight category to remain between IFR and LIFR at all
terminals for the duration of the forecast period from midday on
Saturday through midday on Sunday. Wintry precipitation is expected
to continue to fall across the entire state of Arkansas throughout
the forecast period. The northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK can
expect predominately light snow, the central terminals of KHOT,
KADF, KLIT will experience a mix of light snow, but mostly sleet as
the wintry precipitation type. The southeastern terminals of KPBF
and KLLQ are expected to endure a mix of sleet and freezing rain.
Surface wind gusts at most sites will gust in excess of 18 to 25
knots on Saturday afternoon and remain intermittently gusty through
the remainder of the forecast period. KBPK has been designated as
"AMD NOT SKED" as a communication issue is being addressed with the
site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     13   8  17  -1 / 100 100 100  10
Camden AR         22  11  26   4 / 100 100  90  10
Harrison AR       12   5  13  -6 /  90 100  90  10
Hot Springs AR    17  11  21   3 / 100 100  90  10
Little Rock   AR  15  10  20   2 / 100 100 100  10
Monticello AR     24  16  26   8 / 100 100 100   0
Mount Ida AR      18  10  22   0 / 100 100  80  10
Mountain Home AR  13   7  15  -3 /  90 100 100  10
Newport AR        14  12  18  -1 / 100 100 100  10
Pine Bluff AR     18  13  21   4 / 100 100  90  10
Russellville AR   16  11  19  -2 / 100 100  90  10
Searcy AR         14   8  18  -3 /  90 100 100  10
Stuttgart AR      16  13  19   2 / 100 100 100  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74