Horse Creek, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS66 KMFR 262140
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
240 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.DISCUSSION...The skies have mostly cleared over southern
Oregon and far northern California as high pressure builds in
overhead. A ridge and deepening thermal trough will bring a
drying northeast flow today with skies expected to clear by the
afternoon. The air mass will continue to dry into Saturday with a
more limited coverage of patchy late night valley clouds each
night.

Well-below-freezing low temperatures in the teens and 20s are
expected east of the Cascades again on both Friday and Saturday,
while a widespread frost and areas of freezing temperatures will
be present again on the West Side on Friday.

The ridge will weaken and shift eastward during the weekend.
Though still with chilly mornings and very warm afternoons, low
temperatures will trend higher and high temperatures will trend
lower during the weekend.

This will help usher in a change in the pattern early next week.
It still is most likely that rain with a cold front, the first in
a series of disturbances, will hold off at the coast until late
Sunday night. But, the 00Z ECMWF is in harmony with a distinct
minority of ensemble members that indicate a few light showers in
southwest Oregon as early as Sunday afternoon.

There is better model agreement on the cold front tracking across
our area during Monday into Monday night with snow levels around
7000 feet, though still not in solid agreement on the speed or
strength of the front. As such, west side rain is likely for the
coast and higher terrain, but amounts are in question. This also
leads to differences in whether there will be much precipitation
on the east side in a rather unfavorable west-southwest flow
aloft.

Beyond Monday, for at least Tuesday into Tuesday night, the
question becomes the extent to which the slow moving front will
remain over our area while a reinforcing trough moves eastward
toward northern California. This looks to be a high probability of
light showers situation across our area, with rain favored in
Siskiyou County and southward.

For Wednesday and Thursday, model differences increase, but so
does the probability of a trough and associated cold front that
would be strong enough to call it a storm system. Snow levels are
forecast at around 4500 to 5000 feet, which would just get down to
many of the major passes, or at least the soil adjacent to those
road surfaces. For now, will have to just stay tuned with a
possibility of colder/wetter or less cold/less wet solutions to
verify, but be aware of the possibility of a strong system,
including strong winds, heavy rain, and mountain snow around the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAFs...Gusty north winds are expected along the
coast today into this evening with low level speeds of 20 to 40 kt.
Conditions across the area will be mainly VFR into Friday morning,
except for patches of valley IFR and terrain obscuration tonight
into Friday morning. This includes the Coquille and Camas valleys,
and portions of the Umpqua, Rogue, and Scott valleys.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, March 26, 2026...A thermal
trough will remain strong through Friday night. A Gale Warning is in
effect south of Cape Blanco through early tonight with steep seas
north. Tonight hazardous seas remain for areas south of Cape Blanco
and farther north near Coos Bay through Saturday morning.

Winds ease Saturday, but seas are likely to remain steep. Further
improvement is expected on Sunday, with a period of below advisory
seas possible to end the weekend. Active weather is forecast to
bring rain and building winds and seas from Monday into the middle
of next week as as stronger system moves east.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Friday for
     PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ376.

&&

$$