Montrose, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

765
FXUS65 KGJT 260505
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1105 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases today. Gusty
  outflow winds and some small hail will be possible.

- A few storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, which
  could cause flash flooding in the most sensitive locations,
  including recent burn scars.

- Increased fire weather concerns arrive Wednesday through at
  least Friday as a hotter, drier, and windier pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES:

With a trough of low pressure over the West Coast and ridging across
the middle of the country, southerly flow aloft has developed. This
is pumping subtropical moisture into the Four Corners region,
resulting in widespread cloud cover and shower activity. Clouds and
showers will linger through the night tonight with gradually
diminishing coverage. A lobe of energy will pass overhead tomorrow,
which could add a boost to convective activity in the afternoon. The
question then becomes, will we develop enough instability to kick
off some stronger thunderstorms, or will lingering cloud cover keep
things more mellow. For much of the area, the cloud cover option is
looking more likely. However, things look a bit more interesting for
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Current guidance is favoring
some morning sunshine, which will ultimately produce a couple
of hundred J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. Additionally, a modest
jet streak is expected to track across the region during the
afternoon, producing some wind shear. Plenty of moisture will
be around too, with forecast PWATs around 200% of normal. All
this to say, the best chances for stronger thunderstorms will be
from roughly I-70 northward, with strong, gusty winds and small
hail the main threats. Heavy rainfall will be a threat as well,
thanks to the continually moistening atmosphere. For most
locations, this won`t be an issue, and the moisture is sorely
needed. But for more sensitive areas, especially recent burn
scars, this could lead to a flash flood concern.

Thanks to the clouds and showers, daytime highs will remain cooler,
running a few degrees below normal. Likewise, lows will run a few
degrees above normal.

HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN:

A large cutoff low slides down the West Coast starting Wednesday,
shifting flow over eastern Utah and western Colorado from moist
southerly to dry southwesterly. Skies clear out, dew points plummet,
and temperatures climb close to 10 degrees over those on Tuesday. A
tight pressure gradient between the strong low to the west and
ridging to the east, as well as passing shortwaves in the flow, will
drive strong southwesterly winds with gusts 30-40 each afternoon. As
a result critical fire weather conditions make a return for the
lower elevations of the Western Slope through at least Friday. In
the higher terrain, enough moisture will linger to prompt orographic
showers and thunderstorms every afternoon through the end of the
week.

Temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above normal from Wednesday
into the weekend, and dry conditions prevail. However, winds look to
relax for the weekend, bringing a break from critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

There are scattered showers that may move through over the next
few hours then dissipate. Most locations will see a lull in
activity between 12z and 18z tomorrow, before thunderstorms once
again develop. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though
drops to MVFR will be possible. Winds will follow typical
terrain driven patterns when out of the influence of passing
showers or storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

A deep closed low detaches from the parent flow in the PacNW early
this week. By Wednesday, sharp pressure gradients around the low
will have set up across our CWA, prompting stronger surface winds.
Flow will be drying out during this pattern shift as well, leaving
many areas, particularly in eastern Utah and around the Four
Corners, to drop below 15% relative humidity. Confidence in Red Flag
criteria being met is increasing, and as such a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued from 1-8pm Wednesday for Colorado fire zones 207 and
290, and Utah fire zones 486, 487, and 490. The low stalls through
Friday, leaving at least a three-day stretch of critical fire
weather concerns before the low budges and winds quickly decrease
through the weekend.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for COZ207-290.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ486-487-490.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT