Cape Coral, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXUS62 KTBW 260700
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the
  afternoon and evening hours through Wednesday, then at almost
  anytime Thursday through next Tuesday.

- An increasingly wet pattern is expected late in the week through
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ridging will remain off the southeast U.S. coast through midweek
with the breezy southeast flow, sea breeze regime 7, persisting
across the region. Some drier air will move into the area from the
southeast this morning, but then moisture will increase by evening
allowing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the sea breeze boundary and move back toward the
coast. A similar scenario plays out on Wednesday, but with a
little more moisture we`ll see more numerous late afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm coverage across most inland areas.

For Thursday through Saturday, the ridging will weaken and shift
south and east as an upper level trough begins to setup over the
eastern states. This shifts the flow to a more southwesterly
direction over the area, sea breeze regime 4 Thursday then 5
Friday and Saturday, which will bring the deep moisture that has
been over the central gulf eastward over the Florida peninsula
leading to more clouds and higher rain chances. The rain chances
will be at almost anytime on these days, but the highest PoPs will
be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula
during each afternoon and evening.

During the second half of the weekend into early next week the
global models diverge some and have differing scenarios for our
area. However, it does still look like the upper level troughing
will linger somewhere over the eastern U.S. with plenty of
moisture across the region. Therefore, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms at almost anytime should continue, with the highest
PoPs over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula
each afternoon and evening.

Daytime high temperatures will remain near to a couple of degrees
above normal through Wednesday, then with more clouds and higher
rain chances temperatures will settle back to near normal, and by
the weekend even a couple of degrees below normal. Meanwhile low
temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as
daytime heating gets underway, then more MVFR/local IFR conditions
will be possible later this afternoon and evening in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail with southeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots
with some higher gusts this morning. Winds will shift to south to
southwest this afternoon at TPA, PIE, and SRQ as the sea breeze
moves inland, and could possibly reach the southwest Florida TAF
sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Winds will return to southeast at 4 to
8 knots later this evening. Gusty and erratic winds will be
possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

South to southeast winds will continue across coastal waters
through midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will move out into
the gulf late each day and continue into the early morning hours.
Winds will become more south to southwest during the second half
of the week with deep tropical moisture moving over the waters
leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms at almost
anytime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Ample moisture will keep relative humidity values well above
critical levels and lead to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. Some high dispersions will be possible
with gusty winds, otherwise fire weather concerns remain low
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  89  77 /  50  60  30  40
FMY  94  76  92  76 /  40  30  70  60
GIF  93  76  92  75 /  40  50  70  60
SRQ  93  75  91  75 /  40  50  30  40
BKV  94  73  92  73 /  60  60  40  50
SPG  93  77  91  78 /  40  50  30  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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