Sunrise, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

891
FXUS62 KMFL 241746
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1246 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

    - Dense fog is possible across inland and western portions of
      South Florida this morning.

    - There is a high chance of below normal temperatures across
      South Florida during the middle to late part of next week.

    - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are currently forecast
      to return to South Florida early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

There were no major changes this cycle from the overnight
forecast philosophy. We continue to anticipate a few isolated to
scattered showers across the interior later this afternoon as the
easterly surface flow regime persists. NBM, SREF and HREF
guidance also continues to hint at a low-to-medium chance for fog
development overnight over the interior and SW FL, so we`ll be
monitoring that closely.

Looking at the Days 4-7 forecast, we continue as everyone keeps their eyes
on the robust surface low and cold front systems developing over
the southeastern US this weekend. The NBM temperatures continue
to trend ever-so-slightly cooler with every subsequent run,
highlighting the real chance for below- average temperatures
forecast later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Mesoanalysis early this morning continues to depict the placement of
South Florida between expansive mid-level ridging across the
Caribbean Sea and several transient lobes of mid-level vorticity
present across most of the continental United States today. Mid-
level flow (500mb) will gradually orient itself into more of a zonal
pattern throughout the course of today into tonight as the axis of
mid-level ridging to our south gradually slides eastward. Closer to
the surface, 850mb wind flow will begin to veer to a southeasterly
direction across the region as an area of low pressure develops
along a stationary boundary across the northern Gulf coast. The
placement of South Florida in the warm sector of the sprawling
system to our north will facilitate a continuation of above average
temperatures in the short term, something that we will discuss in
greater detail below.

Surface analysis at this hour continues to depict a slight
perturbation in wind direction and precipitable water values as a
decaying surface trough remains just to the east of South Florida.
Light onshore flow through daybreak will support the continued
potential of isolated shower activity from time to time along the
immediate east coast and the nearshore Atlantic waters. Similar to
last night, precipitable water values once again remain near the
90th percentile for the date with the highest moisture content
confined to the lowest tier of the boundary layer. With winds
decoupling inland across southwestern Florida and forecast model
soundings from the RAP/HRRR once again depicting nocturnal
stratification and a stout surface inversion, the potential exists
once again for dense fog across inland and western locales through
10am this morning. The latest HREF probabilities for 0.25 mile
visibility or less this morning are roughly in the 50-70% (medium to
high) range as of the writing of this discussion. Peninsular
drainage flow may once again result in the advection of fog and a
low cloud deck towards coastal southwestern Florida over the next
several hours. As always, forecasting fog is not an exact science
and small alterations in cloud cover and wind speeds can result in
greater (or less) spatial and temporal coverage. Conditions will
continue to be monitored this morning for the need of any Dense Fog
Advisories for portions of South Florida.

With the light surface wind speeds across the region, the
differential diurnal heating between the land and water interface
will result in both an Atlantic & Gulf sea-breeze developing during
the early afternoon hours, veering winds onshore along both coasts.
The combination of low level moisture and mesoscale sea-breeze
boundaries could set the stage for some afternoon to early evening
shower activity across the region this afternoon. While the current
forecast shows high temperatures in the mid 80s across inland
southwestern Florida and the lower 80s along both coasts, the NBM
75th and 90th percentile once again depict the potential of upper
80s across inland southwestern Florida this afternoon. For
comparison, seasonal norms for this time of year are high
temperatures in the middle 70s at all four of our historical
observing sites (KMIA, KFLL, KPBI, and KAPF) here in South Florida.

Surface winds will gradually veer to a southeasterly to southerly
direction late tonight into early Sunday as the previously
stationary frontal boundary across northern Florida begins to lift
northwards. On Sunday, The Florida peninsula (and us here in South
Florida) will be on a proverbial island per se as surface flow veers
to a southerly direction and warm air advection brings continued
nocturnal and diurnal temperatures that are several degrees above
average. To the north a combination of an arctic airmass to the west
of the developing low pressure system and C.A.D. (Cold Air Damming)
across the southern Appalachians will create a sharp temperature
gradient across the southeastern United States during this time
frame. However the main synoptic boost for the developing system is
forecast to occur later on Sunday as a strong cut-off low phases
with the larger positively tilted mid-level trough. This will in
turn create a very strong jet-steak over the southeastern United
States which will allow for a second surface low pressure system
just offshore of South & North Carolina to deepen and intensify as
it accelerates to the northeast. This strengthening/deepening of the
low pressure system just offshore of the southeastern United States
& Mid Atlantic (and associated warm and cold frontal boundaries)
will have a direct impact here in South Florida as southerly surface
winds enhance and become breezy during the day on Sunday. High
temperatures will range from the low 80s along the immediate
coastline, low to mid 80s across inland suburbs, and a large spatial
extent of upper 80s across inland South Florida and near Lake
Okeechobee. Depending on cloud cover, a few inland locales could
reach the lower 90s as far as ambient temperature with widespread
ambient temperatures in the lower 90s across most of South Florida
with the exception of coastal communities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1241 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

As the surface low offshore of the mid-Atlantic accelerates
northeastward in tandem with the mid-level trough, a cold front will
accelerate eastward across the Gulf during the day on Monday. Model
guidance continues to oscillate between an earlier or later frontal
passage progression. The latest 00z guidance has trended later in
timing which has resulted in a reversal of trends observed last
night. This in turn has resulted in a slight increase in forecasted
high temperatures with the latest forecast update. High temperatures
on Monday afternoon are now forecast to range from the upper 70s
across the northwestern half of South Florida to values in the mid
80s across most of the east coast metro. It is worth noting once
again that the NBM 75th and NBM 90th percentiles depict the
potential of high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 across
the eastern half of South Florida on Monday afternoon. Even with the
mean forecasted temperature values in the mid 80s, apparent
temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the eastern half of the
region on Monday afternoon. NWS Heat Risk continues to depict a
minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk for the east coast metro on Monday
which means that heat could affect primarily those who are extremely
sensitive to heat and do not have access to cooling or hydration.

A narrow pool of deeper atmospheric moisture along the
boundary may result in the potential for a few showers ahead of the
frontal boundary on Monday and the latest forecast continues to
depict a 20-50% chance of precipitation across most of the region on
Monday. Southwesterly winds ahead of the boundary will quickly veer
westerly than northwesterly with a notable temperature drop as
the front sweeps southward across the region. A developing
pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary will result in gusty
conditions on Monday afternoon, especially along the coast and
across our local waters. The trend of a longer duration of
northerly flow (as opposed to winds shifting to a northeast
direction) has continued over the past 24 hours and now depicts
northerly flow continuing into the mid- week period. This trend
has resulted in the continuation of a colder forecast now being
depicted for Tuesday morning as temperatures in the upper 30s are
now forecast across a larger area just west of Lake Okeechobee.
Nocturnal wind speeds have also trended higher with the later
progression of the frontal passage. The combination of brisk
northerly winds and dropping temperatures will result in the
potential of apparent temperatures in the 30s across a large swath
of South Florida with apparent temperature values below freezing
possible across communities in inland southwestern Florida on
Tuesday morning. We are still a few days out from Tuesday morning
so alterations (colder or warmer) in the forecast could stay play
out as frontal timing will be key in what transpires.

With the dry and continental airmass filtering into the region via
northerly flow during the day on Tuesday, high temperatures are
currently forecast to reach the low to upper 60s, which is well
below average compared to seasonal norms. As dewpoints and relative
humidity values drop, wind speeds will be have to monitored closely
on Tuesday and for much of the upcoming week as vegetation across
South Florida remains drier than normal for this time of year
(Moderate to Severe Drought prevails across all of South Florida).
Aloft, mid-level flow will become zonal in nature as several lobes
of embedded mid-level vorticity continue to advect across the
eastern and central United States. High pressure at the surface will
remain in firm control during this time frame as winds gradually
lessen as the pressure gradient slowly weakens. Temperatures will
moderate slightly on Wednesday, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s
across the region.

By the end of the week, most model members depict a very deep and
robust trough digging southward across the eastern United States,
followed by a robust and anomalous strong 850mb high. Cluster
analysis depicts forecasted 850mb heights being below the 5th
percentile compared to historical norms for this time of year,
highlighting just how robust the high pressure (and pool of arctic
air) may be across the region. This pattern combined with any
residual snow/ice cover across the southeastern United States
could result in strong northwesterly flow across the Florida
Peninsula and below normal temperatures persisting late into the
week. Details remain murky as we remain at the tail end of the
extended period but the Climate Prediction Center highlights a
high chance (90-100%) chance of below normal temperatures Thursday
into next Saturday. A moderate risk of much below normal
temperatures has also been maintained for this time period. The
potential exists for a prolonged duration of high temperatures
below 70s degrees across the region for much of the extended
period. Finishing off the long term discussion with the same piece
of forecasting wisdom that was shared last night, you continue to
see specific long-run deterministic runs that are widely shared
on social media of exact temperature values. Outside of 1 to 2
days (and even then), forecasting exact temperature values is
quite difficult, especially roughly a week out. Be sure to check
back over the next several days as details become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Easterly flow
today will become light and variable overnight, but winds shift
out of the east and become gusty tomorrow as a cold front
approaches the region. Sustained winds out of the S/SE ranging
from 10-15 kts will be possible, with gusts up to 25 kts. A few
isolated showers later this afternoon could result in brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions, but confidence on the exact timing
and level of impact remains elusive at this time, so we just kept
VCSH in there for now. Short fuse TEMPOs could be added as needed
later today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue for the remainder of today as
winds will veer to a westerly direction across the nearshore Gulf
waters this afternoon and enhance out of an easterly direction
across the nearshore Atlantic waters during this same time frame. A
few showers remain in the forecast through this evening which may
result in locally elevated seas and winds with the greatest
probabilities residing across the Gulfstream waters. Winds will
begin to veer to a southerly direction across all waters late
tonight into Sunday, enhancing to SCEC (small craft exercise caution
conditons) levels across the northern Atlantic waters during the
afternoon hours of Sunday. A period of prolonged hazardous marine
conditions may materialize across the local waters behind a series
of frontal passages next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  82  71  85 /  20   0  10  20
West Kendall     66  83  67  85 /  20   0  10  20
Opa-Locka        69  83  70  85 /  20   0  10  20
Homestead        70  82  70  84 /  20   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  70  80  70  84 /  20   0  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  70  82  70  85 /  20   0  10  20
Pembroke Pines   69  83  70  85 /  20   0  10  20
West Palm Beach  70  82  70  83 /  20   0  10  30
Boca Raton       70  83  70  85 /  20   0  20  30
Naples           65  82  67  76 /  10   0  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...ATV