Franklin, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS63 KIND 241852
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
152 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning today through Monday morning

- Snow amounts as high as 10 inches in southern Indiana, high
  confidence in 6+ near I-70 and points south

- Cold Weather Advisory through noon, additional dangerous cold
  Sunday night through much of the upcoming week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Overnight forecast is in good shape. Tricky forecast with regard
to accumulating snow onset timing due to residual dry layer in the
lower troposphere. Moderate ascent tied to the entrance region of
strong jet streak to our north is enough for only gradual
moistening of this layer. Closest observations with snow are in
far western/southern Illinois now, and onset for our southwest
counties should be early this afternoon and may not be until
evening across the far north/east. Will refine this timing in the
next couple hours as we continue to monitor observations. Will let
the Cold Weather Advisory drop at noon.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Recent ACARs soundings around IND airport show dry air layer from
850-750 mb is slowly eroding from above as precipitation fall aloft
continues owing to moderately strong vertical motion from WAA in the
600-500 mb layer. Radar imagery from KIND shows nicely the gradual
erosion of the dry air layer aloft with snow making it to about 2kft
AGL around the metro as of 18Z. Present trends indicate snow
should start falling in the Indy metro around 20Z (3 pm EST).

Where the dry layer has been overcome between 850mb and 750 mb, snow
has begun reaching the ground in far W-SW portions of central
Indiana with only minor accums so far thanks to the dry air that
still exists from 950-850 mb (cloud ceilings currently between
3-5kft). Looking upstream, moderate FGEN in the 700-500mb layer
(centered on the DGZ) will continue to develop eastward into
western portions of central Indiana through 22Z. Forecast
soundings show that a period of maximized DGZ snowfall looks to
occur within 1-2 hrs of snowfall onset once low level saturation
has occurred (as was the case at MCI and STL earlier today), with
a quick 1-2 inches expected where the most persistent banding
occur before 00Z (7 pm EST) generally along and west of I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Today Through Sunday.

Synoptic Overview.

As of early this morning, surface high pressure remains entrenched
across the Upper Midwest with a 1045mb surface high centered over
far southern Wisconsin, which is helping to maintain a deep arctic
air mass across the Ohio Valley. Synoptic-scale focus shifts to a
positively tilted and increasingly elongated upper-level trough
propped to lift from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley
tonight into tomorrow as the aforementioned high begins to break
down. Unlike a classic winter closed low with an associated TROWAL,
this stretched configuration will limit the potential for rapid
cyclogenesis or the development of a robust warm conveyor belt this
far north into the Ohio Valley. Instead, central Indiana will deal
with a long-duration overrunning event where modest but persistent
isentropic lift interacts with a saturated and deep DGZ.

Timing and Evolution.

Initial saturation of the mid levels will occur through the morning,
though a lingering dry layer near the surface associated with the
weakening Arctic high may delay the onset of accumulating snow.
Current guidance suggests snow will begin to overspread the
southwest counties shortly after noon, reaching the Indianapolis
metro towards the mid afternoon but remaining light. Farther north,
toward Lafayette and Kokomo, the onset may be delayed until the
evening to potentially overnight due to more substantial dry air
entrainment. The most intense forcing and highest snowfall rates are
likely late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Models are
picking up on a brief lull towards the late morning before another
surge of forcing helps to bring another round of heavier snow
towards the mid afternoon hours Sunday. Because the trough remains
elongated, snow is expected to persist for over 24 hours, only
gradually tapering to flurries from west to east Sunday evening as
the system`s axis shifts toward the Appalachians. Accumulating snow
will end by around 7PM for most of central Indiana and by 10 PM in
the east.

Snowfall Totals.

Forecast snowfall totals for the I-70 corridor, including the
Indianapolis metro, generally fall within the 6 to 10 inch range,
with higher amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible for areas south of a
Terre Haute to Bloomington to Columbus line. While hourly rates will
likely remain between 0.5 and 1.0 inch, the sheer longevity of the
event will allow for these impressive totals. Compaction may help to
limit the final totals, especially with a very fluffy snow. Thermal
profiles are extremely favorable for high-efficiency snow, as model
soundings show the most significant lift occurring directly within
the DGZ. Consequently, SLRs are expected to average between 12:1 and
14:1 in the south and closer to 18:1 in the north where the colder
air allows for more columns vs dendrites. Another concern going into
the afternoon hours on Sunday will be northerly gusts of 20-25 mph
which may cause drifting with the very powdery snow.

Forecast Caveats and Uncertainty.

The primary caveat to this forecast lies in the potential for dry
air intruding into the northern periphery of the system and limiting
the snowfall. If the surface high to the north remains more
suppressed or if the upper-level trough undergoes further
stretching, the northern gradient of the snow shield could sharpen
which has been a general trend in some of the higher resolution
models over the last 12 hours. This would result in lower totals for
the Lafayette to Muncie corridor, possibly as low as 3-4 inches.
Additionally, because the forcing is broad rather than concentrated,
any subtle shift in the track of the weak surface low could shift
the axis of heaviest accumulation 30 to 50 miles in either
direction. There are less caveats to the south other than the
aforementioned compacting limiting final totals.

Temperatures.

Bitterly cold temperatures will define the thermodynamic environment
of this storm. Highs today and Sunday will struggle to reach the mid-
teens, with overnight lows plummeting into the single digits or near
zero. Wind chill values will remain dangerous through the morning
hours with wind chills generally in the -20 to -10 range as of early
this morning. They are expected to rise above -10 this afternoon and
remain above -10 until Sunday night when additional Cold Weather
headlines will likely be needed. Because surface temperatures are so
far below freezing, chemical treatments like salt will have severely
limited effectiveness.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Lingering snow from this weekend`s system should come to an end
during the initial hours of the long term period. Immediately behind
the snow will be another surge of dangerously cold weather as a cold
front moves through. Lows each night, from Sunday night through the
end of the week, are expected to be near 0 degrees. Higher winds on
Monday and Tuesday, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph, wind chills will
likely plummet to -10F to -20F but could feel even colder at times.
Additional cold weather headlines will likely be needed again for
the start of the new work week. Winds appear to let up some the
remainder of the week but minimum wind chills below 0 should
persist. Daytime highs won`t provide much relief either as highs in
the teens and 20s are expected through the week. Continue to limit
time outdoors and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Other than the initial lingering snow, passing surface highs will
help to keep much of long term dry. An exception to the dry weather
could come midweek as there is a chance of additional snow across
central Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Impacts:

- Snow slowly arriving this afternoon from SW to NE

- Visibility reductions to lead deteriorating flight conditions,
with MVFR by 22Z-01Z...IFR becoming the rule tonight

- Ceilings falling to low-VFR/high-MVFR by 22Z...with MVFR
prevailing  by 03Z

- East-northeast winds through 06Z tonight mainly sustained 5-10KT,
backing to NNE while increasing through overnight/Sunday morning

Discussion:

Broad arctic high pressure centered over the Great Lakes...will host
widespread, slowly-approaching overrunning moisture from southwest
to northeast today and tonight.  -SN will gradually overspread
central Indiana from SW to NE this afternoon/late day, with
deteriorating flight rules led by VIS reductions from snow.  Main
burst of -SN/SN to follow through second half of TAF period into
late Sunday.

MVFR VIS into KHUF/KBMG by 21Z-23Z...KIND 23Z-00Z...KLAF by 00Z-01Z.
IFR VIS in steadier bands of -SN will become increasingly frequent
this evening.  LIFR VIS in -SN/SN is possible after 06Z tonight,
especially at KBMG...with LIFR most likely across the region from
09Z into Sunday afternoon...yet generally not expected at KLAF.

Ceilings to fall to low-VFR/high-MVFR by 22Z, continuing through 03Z
when MVFR should prevail.  Periods of IFR CIG in SN are possible 09Z
through midday Sunday...especially at KBMG/KHUF.

Wind direction to stay around 060-070 degrees through 06Z tonight,
sustained around 5-10KT, gusting to 12-18KT.  Flow to slowly back
late tonight-Sunday morning to NNE by 18Z, with slight increase in
flow.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES..by.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
for INZ021-028>031-035>042.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon EST
Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for INZ043>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Crosbie
UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...AGM