Junction City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS63 KTOP 261734
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1234 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of record setting temperatures across the area
  today

- Dry and windy conditions, along with dry fuels, have prompted
  a Red Flag Warning for late this morning into this evening.

- Low chances for a shower or storm as the front passes this
  evening and overnight but accumulating rainfall chances are
  very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Another warm and breezy day anticipated across the area today,
with the cold front driving across the area in the afternoon and
evening hours. Ahead of that, expect significant mixing to near
750mb to bring down very warm and dry conditions. Current
forecast is a degree or so shy of the 25th percentile in the
NBM, while the 50th percentile would bring highs along the I70
corridor in the 97-98 degree range, so the forecast could yet be
a degree or two too low. Southwesterly winds ahead of the system
may relax for a short period mid afternoon, but will quickly
become strong northerly winds and will be breezy throughout the
night. See fire weather discussion below. Rain chances remain
low with locations along and east of the turnpike only in a
25-40% chance for a quarter inch of precipitation, with lesser
amounts more likely. A few hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE could
bring a rumble of thunder with the shower chances in the evening
and early morning hours into Friday.

Highs tomorrow will be much closer to normal in the upper 50s,
but will be breezy then dry as the airmass moves over the state.
A slight warmup into the 60s for Saturday and winds veer around
to the south, but the airmass remains very dry for much of the
day. Highs rise back into the 70s for Sunday, with breezy southerly
winds gusting 20-30 mph in the late morning and afternoon.

Better opportunities for rain come next week, with a series of
systems moving out of the southwesterly flow over our area with
some larger scale systems possible later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Gusty winds and a quick wind shift are driving TAFs early this
period. A cold front moves through sites mid to late afternoon,
causing winds to veer from southwest to north-northeast by this
evening. The strongest sfc winds will likely occur behind the
boundary this evening and early tonight. There could also be a
few storms that develop post front. Chances are around 50%, so
have included a few hours of VCTS for now until confidence
increases more on coverage and placement of storms. Flight
categories this period should remain VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for today. Pattern is very hot
and continued dry, with breezy southwest winds ahead of the
front and strong north winds behind it, and is combined with
antecedent dry conditions. May also see a window of a few hours
in the afternoon as the front approaches along the I70 corridor
where deeper mixing brings down even warmer and drier
temperatures right before the winds shift. All factors indicated
an upgrade to a warning for today.

Friday will be quite tricky as the incoming airmass is very dry.
For the moment, the strongest winds are out ahead of the drier
air, but will need to monitor for upgrades. Very high fire
danger is expected. Temperatures slowly warm back up Saturday
into Sunday, and become breezy again Sunday, but RH values
should also slowly be on the rise as higher dewpoints make their
way northward into the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2026

Record High Temperature for March 26

              Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka 85 (1910, 1991) 94
Concordia 86 (1907) 87

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Teefey
FIRE WEATHER...Craven
CLIMATE...Flanagan