Liberal, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

829
FXUS63 KDDC 241730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1130 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light accumulation of snow is expected for today into tonight with
accumulations generally in the 1-3 inch range

- Model trends keep the heavier accumulating snows mainly south of
the Kansas-Oklahoma state line tonight

- Models have a quick moving system that could bring some light
accumulations of snow Sunday night

- Arctic air will continue to be in place through Monday morning
  with wind chill values as cold as -20 this morning and -15 for
  Sunday and Monday mornings

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

08Z upper air analysis shows a large trough across the central and
northern plains with a closed low reaching the coast of Baja
California.  The first 700 mb shortwave is moving through western
Kansas with the best lift occurring in north central Kansas.  Radar
returns are reflecting this lift as light snow continues mainly
along and north of the K-96 corridor.  Arctic air has firmly settled
in western Kansas with 850 mb temps at -17 to -22 (C).  Surface
temps are below 0 and with wind speeds at 10-15 mph the wind chills
are hovering around -20.

Today the focus of snow will largely depend on how much lift we get
in the dendritic growth zone ahead of the second longwave trough that
comes out of the Rockies later tonight.  Short term models are all
in large agreement of pockets of light snow throughout the day
however accumulations should be light as the lift doesn`t support
anything other than light snow.  We could see around 0.5 inch of
snow at the most through the day with parts of southwest Kansas
being snow free.  Tonight the main event for the advertised winter
storm will move into the southern plains.  The model trends for snow
continue to push the light to moderate snow more into Oklahoma and
with drier air coming in from the northwest which will push the
better lift into central Oklahoma...it looks like southwest Kansas
should miss out on the major accumulating snow.  Totals of 1-2
inches are possible mainly from Ashland to Pratt on east and as you
go northwest the better probabilities are that there will be no snow
through the night.  Since this second wave is trending south that
has led to overall totals being reduced as it looks like 4-7 inches
along and east of a Meade to Hays line will be the final totals with
lesser amounts as you go west.

Sunday should start out dry as a surface high settles in southwest
Kansas.   Latest model runs are showing a northwest flow shortwave
entering into northwest and then southwest Kansas through the night.
This wave will also bring back some recycled arctic air through the
night with a cold front and with modest lift in the 850-700 mb layer
we could see some light accumulating snow moving in between midnight
and sunrise Monday morning.  Totals should remain light as the
highest probabilities still keep totals under 1 inch.  After Monday
morning the long term pattern keeps us dry until hints of a storm
system appear towards Friday into the weekend however the track is
still largely uncertain.

The cold air will stay entrenched at least through Monday morning
with temperatures today struggling to get into the single digits.
Wind chills for Sunday and Monday morning could fall to around -15
but the good news is that wind speeds both mornings should only be
around 5 to 10 mph.  Air temperatures are forecast to fall below 0
both mornings.  With more sun expected on Sunday the models have
shown a bit of a warming trend to the air mass however with snow on
the ground we will probably see temperatures only get into the teens
to lower 20s.   Another round of arctic air comes in for Monday and
then afterwards with west to southwest winds this should help to
exit the arctic air mass by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas of light snow will be possible through the remainder of
the day at all TAF sites as moisture and lift continues over a
very cold acrtic air mass currently in place across southwest
Kansas. Latest guidance and BUFR soundings indicating ceilings
will mainly range from 2000 to 4000ft AGL with a 30-50% chance
for these ceilings to lower into the 1000 to 2000ft range with
the steadier light snow. Between 21z today and 00z Sunday the
ceilings will lower into the 1000 to 2000ft AGL across all of
southwest Kansas. The winds today and tonight will be north
northeast at 10 knots or less. Additional snowfall at all TAF
sites between 18z and when the snow ends will average less than
one inch.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ030-031-
044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert