Richmond, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

641
FXUS63 KLMK 261123
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
723 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rainfall today ranging from .50" to 1.10" for most
  across central and southern Kentucky. Localized amounts of 2 to 3"
  possible from slow moving showers and storms producing moderate to
  heavy rainfall. A few instances of Flash Flooding possible.

* Marginal Risk for severe storm this afternoon and early evening
  along and south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways
  across central and southern KY for the potential for severe gusty
  winds and spin-up tornados.

* Another round of scattered to numerous moderate to heavy showers
  and thunderstorms on Wednesday could lead to another day with the
  potential for localized flash flooding across the northern
  Bluegrass.

* High pressure building and waning at the mid levels this week will
  provide episodic bouts of showers in our southern counties, with
  areas along and north of the Ohio having the best chance of
  remaining dry into next week.

* At or below normal temperatures and cool NE flow brings stretches
  pleasant weather into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

The main message in the short term continues to be the
following: First, the potential for localized flash flooding due to
a repeat periods of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms
over the area today and again tomorrow.

Second, thunderstorm that form later this afternoon and evening have
the potential to be severe with the threat being gusty damaging
winds and spin up tornadoes.


***FLOODING CONCERNS***

As was highlighted in the previous discussion, a deep moisture
plume featuring PWATS of ranging between 1.9-2.1" will lift
northward across central KY through the morning into the early
afternoon. This will result in widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall. We still anticipate the heaviest and most widespread swath
of rain to be across central and southern KY where 0.5 to 1.25" are
possible with locally high amounts as high as 2 to 2.5" from slow
moving and potentially training storms over areas that have already
been saturated by rain over the last couple of days. Decided to
hold off on a Flood Watch as there was not much discussion and WPC
continues to keep central KY in a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall Outlook. With that said, given the high PWAT values, the
potential slow movement of showers and thunderstorms over already
saturated areas a few Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings may
be issued during the day.

Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
could develop tomorrow thanks to a quasi-stationary boundary over
the Ohio Valley. WPC did put the northern part of the Bluegrass and
our far eastern southern IN counties in a Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall for Wednesday with the rest of our CWA remaining in a
Marginal Risk. Deep moisture will continue to in place over the area
with additional rounds of slow moving showers and storms producing
localized heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.

***SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY***

The above mentioned deep moisture will push dewpoints to near 70
later this afternoon. Hi-res models also show a break in clouds by
the mid to late afternoon allowing for SBCAPE values to get to
between 1000-1500 J/kg. A LLJ will start to push northward into
central KY during the day allowing for increase low-level shear and
model soundings also show mid-level and curved hodographs across
southern and central KY later this afternoon. After collaborating
with neighbors and the SPC, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) was added
for areas south of a line from Lexington to Elizabethtown along I-65
to Bowling Green and along the KY/TN border due to a low end,
marginal tornado threat and isolated severe wind gusts from any
potential storms. Confidence in severe threat is low but given
recent activity agree with SPC decision and placement of the
Marginal Outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Sfc high pressure is expected to build in over the Great Lakes for
the second half of the week and into the weekend. This will help to
push the meandering stalled boundary further south. Just how dry the
area will be during this period will be determined by just how far
the boundary goes Thursday into the weekend. Some solutions do show
the front stalling out just south of the area and keeping low end
precipitation chances across our far southern CWA through the end of
the week and into the weekend. But general confidence is moderate to
high that a vast majority of the CWA remains dry. Temperatures are
also expected to be a few degrees below seasonal normals for this
time of year ranging from the low 80s on Thursday to the upper 70s
Friday into the weekend with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

High pressure is expected to remain over the region to our north to
start next week keeping the forecast dry for now and continued
unseasonably below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 722 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rain showers continue to push northward with lowering CIGS and VIS
due to showers. We will see areas go from VFR to MVFR with a few
locations down to IFR due to CIG and at times VIS due to heavy
rainfall. This will be around for most of the day with some
improvement later tonight but could see low stratus once again
later this evening into tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN