Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

936
FXUS63 KJKL 261627
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1227 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal today. A
  strong cold front will then bring widespread showers and the
  possibility of a few thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend,
  bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures
  by Saturday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

Much of the showers have moved out of the warning area with the
last little bit near Martin and Pike counties. A mix of sun and
clouds are expected through the remainder of the day. The forecast
was updated with the latest weather observations and data from
across the area. No major changes were made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 800 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

A cluster of convection, associated with an upper level disturbance,
is dropping southeast into northern Kentucky as the sun rises
across eastern Kentucky. However, it will be moving into an
instability-starved environment so an overall weakening trend is
expected -- this is supported by recent CAMs. The best chance for
measurable rainfall will be near/north of the Mountain Parkway.
Expect the shower activity to depart/dissipate over far eastern
Kentucky by around 19Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 447 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

Satellite imagery shows mid and high-level clouds passing over
eastern Kentucky with even some isolated radar returns showing up
from some of the mid-level cloud cover. Temperatures are much
warmer than last night, ranging from the lower 50s in the
sheltered Coalfield Valleys to the lower and middle 60s over the
thermal belts and more exposed terrain west of I-75 and near and
north of I-64. The latest analysis shows ongoing low to mid-level
WAA as a weak warm front lifts into the Ohio Valley with an area
of convection (most concentrated over southern and central
Indiana). The upper-level pattern shows broad ridging over the
Central CONUS hedged by troughing along the East and West Coasts.
Potent vorticity energy is ejecting out of the Pacific Northwest
and across South Central Canada atop the ridging.

Locally, heights will continue to rise today as the warm front
lifts through the Ohio Valley. The best chances for anything more
than some sprinkles/light rain with this feature will be found
near and north of the Mountain Parkway. A stray rumble of thunder
is not entirely out of the question, but instability will be very
limited. The rain chances will occur mainly between 6 AM and 2 PM.
The deeper moisture will then move out, allowing for a sunshine-
filled afternoon. Meanwhile, as vort energy from the Pacific
Northwest trough rides eastward, it will suppress the Western
ridge and support a wave of low pressure riding from the Mid-
Missouri Valley this morning to the eastern Great Lakes this
evening. The warm conveyor belt jet feeding across the warm
sector will lead to increasingly breezy conditions this afternoon.
GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer of 20 to 33 kts supports
southwesterly surface wind gusts reaching a similar magnitude. It
will also be quite warm today with widespread highs in the lower
to mid 80s.

The aforementioned surface low departs into Atlantic Canada tonight
via New England with vort energy carving a deeper trough over the
Northeast CONUS as the upper-level ridging retrogrades westward.
The low`s trailing cold front sinks southward to the Ohio River
tonight and then gradually presses south across the Commonwealth
during the day on Friday. A moderate surface pressure gradient
across the area (3-5 mb) and ample cloud cover should keep
the boundary layer somewhat mixy and temperatures mild tonight,
ranging from the mid 50s north to the mid and upper 60s south.
Likely rain chances reach the I-64 corridor by daybreak Friday and
sag south to the KY-TN border by around 1 PM. Minimal instability
should preclude anything more than a stray rumble of thunder as
the front and associated precipitation pass. Rainfall amounts are
expected to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches for most locations.
Temperatures will peak in the 60s to low and mid 70s ahead of the
boundary but fall back into the 40s for most, if not all, areas by
days end with a chilly northerly breeze.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

The forecast period begins late Friday evening with the CWA situated
on the backside of a departing cold front as surface high pressure
builds in from the north. Beginning from northwest to southeast,
clearing skies and post-frontal cold air advection will allow
temperatures to drop toward freezing. This supports the potential
for frost development, particularly in sheltered valleys. This
threat has been highlighted in the HWO for the last few days, and
there is potential for frost headlines Friday night into Saturday
morning as the growing season is underway.

Surface high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature
through the weekend. Persistent northerly flow will maintain CAA on
the backside of the departing system, keeping Saturday cool with
highs ranging from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass to the upper 50s
near the Tennessee border. Low-level flow will shift southerly by
Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm with highs running about 10
degrees warmer than Saturday.

Beginning Monday, a series of shortwaves will traverse the CONUS,
introducing isolated to scattered PoPs starting Monday afternoon and
continuing through the end of the period. Temperatures will trend
above seasonal averages during this timeframe, with highs eventually
climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday and persisting
through Wednesday and Thursday.

In summary, the forecast period is characterized by the arrival of
surface high pressure for the weekend. Temperatures will start below
normal but will trend significantly warmer, reaching the 80s by the
middle of next week. Model consensus indicates a return to an active
convective pattern for the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the TAF period with just
some isolated sprinkles near the US-23 corridor. A more
substantive cluster of showers with a little embedded thunder was
noted upstream moving into northern Kentucky. Expectation is that
this activity will impact areas generally north of KRGA-KJKL-KPBX
through the morning and linger in the early afternoon over far
eastern terminals like SJS. This activity has been covered with
PROB30 groups and could lead to scattered sub-VFR conditions. Once
the precipitation ends, clouds will decrease. This will allow
more effective warming and mixing of the lower atmosphere, which
will result in increasing southwesterly winds with gusts of 20-30
kts over northern terminals. The winds should pick up sooner south
of the precipitation as diurnal heating won`t be delayed by
rainfall.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON