Shrewsbury, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

217
FXUS61 KBOX 261125
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
725 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes since Wednesday morning update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild conditions today will be followed by a soaking rain
  tonight into Friday. Cooler, but still near normal Friday.

- Cold and windy start to the weekend with a warm up expected
  Sunday and the start of the work week. Watching the chance for
  unsettled weather through at least mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild conditions today will be followed by a
soaking rain tonight into Friday. Cooler, but still near
normal Friday.

A band of rainfall moving across southern New England this
morning was not resulting in much accumulation at the ground,
despite some higher reflectivity. Expecting this band to be
well over the ocean by around daybreak, leaving dry conditions
for this morning. Increasing southwest winds will push warmer
air into our region. Any sunshine we get this morning should be
effective in boosting temperatures above normal, with many
locations in the 60s away from the immediate south coast. Still
stuck int he 50s there due to the onshore flow. Depending on how
much sunshine we get this morning, a few spots in the CT River
valley could even push 70 degrees for a high temperature.

More clouds and rain arrive along and ahead of a cold front late
today across western MA, but especially tonight for most of
southern New England. Still thinking a forecast of 0.25-0.50
inch of rainfall is most likely when all is done later Friday
morning. Drier and colder weather overspreads our region Friday
as well. This cold advection appears to be strong enough to hold
temperatures nearly steady during the day. While colder than
today, high temperatures should still be near normal for late
March.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold and windy start to the weekend with a warm
up expected Sunday and the start of the work week. Watching the
chance for unsettled weather through at least mid week.

By Saturday the of the trough moves over New England with 500 mb
heights falling to 520dm. We won`t see too much in the way of
improving temperatures as 850mb temps remain well below -10C, or
about 15-20 below average! Thus, expect highs to struggle into
the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and Sunday with NW flow
and continued cold advection aloft. Gusty NW winds will make it
feel closer to the teens and 20s across the region, especially
on Saturday. Expect warmer conditions to arrive Monday as high
pressure shifts offshore and establishes a southwesterly return
flow. Highs likely climb into the lower to mid 50s Monday
afternoon.

Focus then shifts to another frontal boundary that arrives later
Monday into Tuesday. Guidance initially shows a cold front that
moves SE before slowing and transitioning to more of a
stationary front somewhere over New England. This boundary could
act as a focus for numerous waves of unsettled weather starting
later Monday and for perhaps the first half of the week.
Ensembles have ample PWATs (150-200 percent of normal) so, no
issues with available moisture. Uncertainty will be driven
primarily by the location of the frontal boundary and the
eventual track/intensity of shortwaves originating from the
Pacific Northwest and racing east on an increasingly zonal
upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence.

VFR conditions dominate outside perhaps some brief marginal
MVFR cigs under -RA during the early-mid morning hours. SW wind
gusts of 20-30 kt develop. Generally dry weather, but a few spot
showers possible mainly early in the morning and perhaps later
in the day near the NH border. Strong LLWS possible over the
south coast with 40-50 kt of shear to 2000 feet.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR, possibly even LIFR, tonight
with -RA overspreading the region from west to east between 00
and 06z. Southwest winds becoming northwest between 06 and 12Z
Friday.

Friday...High confidence.

Becoming VFR from NW to SE during the morning. Gusty N winds
behind a cold frontal passage.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in timing.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in timing..

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Breezy.

Monday: Windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday...High confidence.

Winds increasing out of the south/southwest this morning.
Moderate sustained winds between 15-25 kt with gusts up to
30 kt. Winds shift to the northwest tonight as a cold front
moves over the coastal waters with a round of showers. North to
northeast winds expected for Friday. Small Craft Advisory
criteria through the end of this week with a few gale force
gusts possible on the edge of the outer marine zones.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...Belk/FT