Battle Creek, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS63 KGRR 241653
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1153 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous Cold Saturday Morning Then A Little Improvement

- Sunday Snow in Southern Michigan

- Cold Week Ahead With Lake Effect Snow

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Dangerous Cold Saturday Morning Then A Little Improvement

Each location`s history is nuanced, though we appear to be in the
midst of the coldest nighttime temperatures since 2019 in many
locations (excluding the lakeshore this time, where it is a little
warmer under lake effect clouds). For GRR, this morning`s low is
minus 19 degrees. The last time it was minus 17 degrees was in
1996, and it was minus 22 in 1994. There is little wind given this
pristine radiational cooling setup, though even at 5 mph, the
wind chill is about 10 degrees colder. NBM 50th percentile high
temperatures today in the mid- upper single digits will be close
to the daily record cold highs. More info in Climate section
below.

Cold weather headlines should expire later this morning as wind
chill climbs above -15, though will remain in the single digits
either side of zero today. Wind chill may threaten another dip
to -15 in some areas Mon morning and Tue morning.

Semi-stationary convergence band of lake effect snow will loom just
offshore Saturday, though possibly remain over western Oceana and
Mason counties long enough to provide additional light accumulation.

- Sunday Snow in Southern Michigan

Most models continue to show snow affecting southern Lower Michigan
Sunday morning through evening, heaviest during the afternoon. This
will be on the northern periphery of the significant winter storm
across much of the country to our south. Forecast soundings show
temperature profiles solidly in the DGZ up to 15,000 feet thick, so
even light snow production could result in decent totals. Assuming
about a 20:1 snow/liquid ratio, NBM probabilities for 3+ inch
snowfall is around 30 percent for Kalamazoo-Lansing, around 50
percent for Jackson, while only about 10 percent for Grand Rapids.

- Cold Week Ahead With Lake Effect Snow

Global ensembles continue to support temperatures staying below 20
degrees until possibly the end of the week. Another series of
midlevel shortwaves amid northwest flow will continue to support
frequent lake effect snow Monday through much of the week, though
tapering late week for inland areas with high pressure and northerly
flow tending to nose in.

Tuesday may be a particular challenge with impacts to travel as a
Clipper with a surface low produces at least light snow
accumulations and brings winds gusting 20-30 mph, resulting in areas
of blowing or drifting snow with temperatures still in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing this afternoon with ceilings in the
3-4 kft range at MKG, GRR, and AZO. Higher or indefinite ceilings
are being seen inland as light easterly flow holds the lake effect
stratocu to the west. Conditions deteriorate late tonight into
Sunday as light snow moves over the area, with conditions at AZO,
BTL, JXN, and possibly LAN reaching IFR. MVFR is favored at GRR
being towards the edge of the precip shield, and VFR at MKG. Light
snow will continue beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Bitterly cold temperatures will continue to increase the ice
forming on our rivers. Thankfully, most of our typical
trouble spots for ice jams are already mostly or completely
frozen over. However, river ice is notoriously unpredictable, and
the rarity of this upcoming cold snap will likely create some
minor ice jam issues in places that don`t typically have to deal
with river ice. For example, the last time it was this cold
(2019) the Muskegon River had some ice jam issues at both
Bridgeton and Newaygo, and there are already some signs that
something similar could be happening again this year. The bottom
line is that when we expect very unusual cold conditions, it`s not
unreasonable to expect some very unusual river ice issues
somewhere. Water levels around ice jams can go up/down much faster
than usual, so anyone living near a river should pay extra
attention to water levels over the next few days and have a plan
to respond if conditions change quickly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

For reference, January 24 record cold low temperatures:

GRR -19 (1948)
LAN -22 (1884)
MKG -5  (1970)
BIV -12 (1948)
AZO -13 (1963)
BTL -13 (1948)

January 24 record cold high temperatures:

GRR 6 (1904)
LAN 5 (1963)
MKG 7 (1897)
BIV 11 (1987)
AZO 5 (1963)
BTL 4 (1963)

Coldest temperatures on record:

GRR -24 (2/13/1899 and 2/14/1899)
LAN -37 (2/2/1868)
MKG -30 (2/11/1899)
BIV -24 (2/1/1918)
AZO -22 (2/5/1918 and 2/10/1912)
BTL -24 (2/12/1899)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...Thomas
HYDROLOGY...AMD
CLIMATE...Hoving/CAS