Pittsfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

693
FXUS63 KDTX 241715
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1215 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions today give way to accumulating snowfall late
tonight and into Sunday.

- Winter weather advisory for locations along and south of M-59
tomorrow with a winter storm warning for Monroe county.

- Very cold conditions continue next week with wind chills
occasionally dipping to 5 to 15 below zero.

&&

.AVIATION...

Quiet cold conditions will prevail through midnight. Otherwise,
advancing high cloud field associated with a developing large scale
winter system will overspread the airspace through the balance of
the daylight hours.  The deeper moisture profile associated with the
storm system will crawl in from the south through the course of the
overnight hours - ushering in MVFR ceilings and the onset of light
snow.  The longest duration of snow with the poorest conditions will
be across the Detroit airspace.  While light snow will persist
through the morning, the most intense snowfall with the greatest
impact (dropping into IFR around Detroit) will be during the
afternoon hours on Sunday.  Winds will be modest in strength and
slowly back around from east to north as the surface low passes to
the south of the region.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet Sunday after 09z.

* High in precipitation type of snow.

* Medium in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2SM in falling
  snow after 18z Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

UPDATE...

Extreme/record setting cold (-24F low at FNT) and dry air in place
over southeast Michigan will be slow to dislodge, which makes for
tough call when snow "starts"/overspreads southeast Michigan
tonight/tomorrow morning. Increasing 925-850 MB southeast winds
tonight, but Lake Erie is mostly frozen over and will not be a
significant player. Should see a lot of virga and mainly
flurries/very light snow showers tonight, but light accumulating snow
should begin 8-12z in the southern counties. Still, the peak of the
snowfall will occur during the afternoon/late in the day with the
upper level jet forcing arriving. Although there are no big
differences between 12z HRRR/NAM/Regional GEM, the very tight
moisture gradient still makes for a challenging forecast. Forecast
soundings during much of Sunday now indicating saturation/forcing
hanging around in the -10 to -12 C layer, not the ideal sweet spot
for stellar snow to liquid ratios. Model clustering of the low coming
out of the Gulf Coast States indicates a sw-ne track through West
Virginia and now just east of Pittsburgh PA Sunday evening, and
washing out as the coastal low takes over. Bulk of the models still
indicated 24 hr QPF reaching up to half an inch over southern Monroe
county, and even with snow to liquid ratios in mid/uppper teens, a 5-
8 inch snowfall seems doable for Monroe, and will go with a winter
warning. A high end advisory will be issued for 4-7 inches for
Lenawee, Washtenaw, and Wayne counties. Will also carry a winter
weather advisory for the M-59 corridor for 2-4 inches/isolated up to
5. The end time will be 5z Monday/midnight. Southern Lake Huron has
significant ice cover, which complicates the potential lake effect
bands Sunday night as the low level flow goes northerly. Confidence
is low in any significant bands impacting the eastern Thumb region,
and this is something later shifts can look at.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

DISCUSSION...

Very cold start today across Southeast Michigan, and for much of
CONUS, as clear overnight skies lie atop a bona fide arctic airmass.
This has led to initial readings well below 0F, but since gradient
winds are weak (predominantly AOB 5 knots) the difference between
air temperatures and wind chill values has mostly been minimal. The
Cold Weather Advisory should be allowed to expire by 10 AM as wind
chills increase above -15F for the rest of the day. Gradual thermal
moderation is already underway within the column, marked by 850 mb
temperatures warming from -27C (per 24.00Z KDTX RAOB), to the minus
teens (Celsius) by this afternoon. This translates to a marginally
warmer day, with daytime highs in the upper single digits, in spite
of increasing cloud cover. Mesoscale 1043 mb surface ridge dislodges
from southwest Lower Michigan later today and migrates eastward,
eventually flipping light winds easterly by this evening.

Continuing to monitor the next opportunity for accumulating snowfall
late tonight into Sunday as highly amplified northern and southern
stream troughing phase over the southern Plains, before the
composite wave ejects into The Northeast by Monday. Local isentropic
surfaces steepen and moisten with time as the ThetaE ridge lifts out
of the Ohio Valley and into the Lower Peninsula tonight. Light snow
begins to spread north of the Michigan/Ohio border sometime between
03Z and 06Z Sunday, well downstream of the actual wave features. The
more substantial CVA should still be west of the Mississippi by 12Z
Sunday. Given the lack of more meaningful dynamics, initial
overnight accumulations (south of I-94) should hold below an inch.
The moderate to briefly heavy snowfall rates are not expected until
Sunday afternoon, after the lead VortMax clips the southeast edge of
the CWA.

As expected with a narrowing time horizon, consensus model data has
sharpened wrt the QPF gradient. Latest deterministic, ensemble, and
ML guidance show agreement in the expected range of QPF. Areas south
of I-94 will likely get between 0.20 and 0.40 inches of liquid
equivalent, while the sharp gradient with northwest extent keeps
total QPF to around a few hundredths across the Tri-Cities.
Regarding snow-related headlines, opted to hold off on an advisory
(or watch/warning for Monroe or Wayne Counties) tonight to allow an
additional cycle of model data. At the very least, an Advisory will
likely be needed for most counties across the southern half of the
forecast area where forecast soundings maintain deep saturation
through the DGZ. The main limiting factor will be the lack of
stronger ascent which keeps average totals in the 2-4 inch range,
but decreases sharply north of I-69. The exceptions will be over
Monroe and Wayne counties where vertical velocities could produce
rates on the order of a half inch per hour. This leads to non-zero
potential in approaching Warning criteria, but the latest SLR trends
closer to 15-1 and few 7+ inch solutions preclude a Watch. Some
uncertainty exists with how long snowfall continues Sunday night,
and the extent to which post-event lake effect impinges on the
forecast area. Another quarter to half inch is possible late Sunday
into Monday.

Daily lake effect snowfall chances in-play for much of next week as
colder than normal conditions persist. Several reinforcing shots of
arctic air and supporting disturbances aloft offer additional
opportunities for wind chills dropping below -15F, therefore future
Cold Weather Advisories may be warranted. Daytime highs are capped
in the teens during the next 7 days.

MARINE...

The maintenance of a heavy lake effect snow band will persist across
north to north central Lake Huron through the afternoon as low-level
convergence persists within a corridor of unstable conditions. A
strong high pressure system to then settle in across the Great Lakes
though the day. This will bring a period of lighter winds through
the weekend.

Across the southern Great Lakes, light snow will begin to expand
across the region through Sunday as an expansive low pressure system
arrives across the Appalachia region. The departure of this low
pressure system into the western Atlantic will reinforce arctic air
across the Great Lakes, which will increase wind speeds through the
early and midweek period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday
     night for MIZ063-068>070.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday
     night for MIZ075-076-082.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night
     for MIZ083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....Mann
UPDATE.......SF
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM


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