Mankato, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

476
FXUS63 KMPX 261933
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
233 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air is arriving this afternoon and will persist through
  Friday night.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon
  across central and southern Minnesota.

- A more active pattern is expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Cold air advection continues this afternoon following a frontal
passage overnight. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s
and low 30s across western Minnesota, while milder air is
clinging on at the moment to the east. High pressure will build
south into the northern Plains tonight and Friday morning,
sliding to the southeast to the mid Mississippi Valley Friday
afternoon and Friday night. After a short period of colder
conditions with highs only in the 30s Friday, a moderating
trend will begin as early as Saturday. Radar has shown
persistent echos across central Minnesota and far southern
Minnesota for much of the day, but nothing has reached the
ground. There is a stout dry layer between 4-10kft. If not for
that, we would be talking about accumulating snow.

Return flow will begin tomorrow night as the high pushes
southeast. An increasing pressure gradient will lead to gusty
winds late Saturday morning and afternoon. Forecast soundings
exhibit deep mixing and gust potential in the 30-40 kt range. In
addition, the high will scour moisture out of the entire
southeastern U.S. so moisture advection will be lacking while
temperatures rebound back to 60. Afternoon humidity values are
likely to fall into the teens, leading to the potential for
critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for central and southern Minnesota for Saturday
afternoon. Improved low level moisture and lighter winds will
allow for improving conditions Saturday night and Sunday.

The pattern next week will be dominated by a western trough/
eastern ridge pattern. A few fast moving, weak systems will
eject east across the northern CONUS through the period.
Predictability with any of those at this range is not great, so
PoPs remain low and persistent. As the last discussion pointed
out, the best moisture will generally be east and the best
forcing will be north. This should keep us from seeing
a significant precip event until maybe next weekend.
Temperatures will largely depend on where these systems track. A
northerly track should send us into the 70s and 80s and a
southerly track would keep us in the 40s and 50s. Not
surprisingly, the NBM is splitting the difference nicely for
now, but the forecast is likely to trend up and/or down each
day next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

MVFR ceilings at initialization will remain across the area
through late afternoon then gradually lift to low-range VFR
going into the evening hours. Skies will then partially clear
out while clouds remain at varying levels overnight through
midday Friday. Breezy/gusty N winds will continue through the
daylight hours, diminish a bit this evening through overnight,
then pick up once again to breezy/gusty fro the NW on Friday. No
additional precipitation is expected at any of the TAF sites.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings to continue through late afternoon then
during the afternoon-evening push rise to VFR levels. VFR
conditions are then expected through the remainder of this
duration, with some clearing tonight through tomorrow and no
precipitation expected. Some fair wx mid-level cumulus clouds
are possible during the day tomorrow. Winds to continue from the
N through tonight, with breezy/gusty speeds into this evening
before settling down to around 10kts. Speeds then pick up once
again after daybreak Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-20G25-30 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-
     Douglas-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-
     Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-
     Wright.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle-
     Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JPC