Bay St. Louis, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

693
FXUS64 KLIX 241735
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1135 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

 - A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Wilkinson County
   as well as Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana Parishes for a
   light glaze of freezing rain this weekend.

 - A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the rest of
   southwest Mississippi and a portion of southeast Louisiana for
   potential of freezing rain this

 - A Cold Weather Advisory is effect for portions of SELA and SWMS
   tonight and Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all of the area
   Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Winds chills could range
   from near 0 to 15 degrees Monday morning and from the mid
   single digits to upper teens Tuesday morning.

 - A Small Craft Advisory(SCY) and a Gale Watch(GLA) remain in
   effect for all of the coastal waters. The SCY begins Saturday
   night and continues through Sunday for strong onshore winds
   ahead of a developing surface low. The GLA is for Sunday night
   into monday morning for the possibility of very strong winds
   out of the northwest behind the cold front that will move
   through Sunday and early Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The next 48 hours will be a very challenging forecast in many ways.
A strong shortwave trough embedded within the broader CONUS trough
is currently sharpening while its dives south towards the
4-Corners At the same time, a southern-stream upper low is moving
east from the Pacific and will be passing east across Baja
California around noon today. As it moves into tracks into Texas
tonight it will phase with the northern-stream shortwave. The now
virtually singular feature will then swing through the Lower
Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday.

The resulting pattern supports a probable significant freezing rain
event across Central Louisiana and Mississippi as warm, moist mid
levels overrunning an increasingly cold, shallow Arctic surface
layer that is surging southward. It`s arguably a much `easier`
forecast in those areas of the region as its not a question of IF
but how much freezing rain occurs. Farther south in our CWA
uncertainty is significantly higher. This is due to both the
shallow depth of the Arctic airmass as well as the criticalness
of timing of cold air arrival while still raining.

Before the bitterly cold air arrives, the environmental setup is
a bit interesting on Sunday afternoon. A fairly sharp temp and
dewpoint gradient will exist across the CWA Saturday with a
roughly 30 degree delta-T between Woodville MS and Boothville LA.
If you look at soundings along coastal areas from LA to MS, cold
air aloft combined with those mid 60 degree temps and you`re
seeing a surprising amount of elevated instability. The more
impressive parameters are high shear (not surprising this time if
year), moderate helicity and climatologically high PW`s. So
definitely do have some concern for rotating cells and SPC`s
Outlook high lights this. Worthy of a Slight Risk? Probably not as
the challenge will be cells becoming surface based with little/no
help from cooler waters temps.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

*most below is previous discussion as thinking did not change.

The forecast for Sunday is very tricky and very small changes will
mean the world with respect to impacts. This system will already
be well under way likely bringing crippling impacts to portions of
TX, northern LA, AR, and into northern MS through much of the day
Saturday. The culprit is multiple features coming together to get
a very strong Winter Storm that by the end of Monday will impact
areas from TX to the northeast CONUS. Already a few systems have
helped to bring the cold air south out of Canada and working well
into the US. There is already teens across OK at this time and
mid 20s moving into central AR. With cold air already in place the
trough axis of a developing L/W is already working south across
the PAC coast and will dig into the 4 corners tomorrow. What this
is doing though is it will draw a deep closed low west of the Baja
east tonight and into Mexico tomorrow. This increase the
southwest flow aloft over the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley
thus increasing the overall lift and moisture across the region.
This low moving across Mexico is the main forcing and depending on
how fast it opens up and where it moves will have big
implications on snow/freezing rain locations. If it doesn`t open
up as fast and lifts northeast across TX and into the Lower MS
Valley then there is a better chance of a colder more impactful
solution hitting us. If it opens quickly lifts across western TX
and into the southern Plains by Sunday morning then a warmer
solution will be in store for us. The trend the previous 24-36
hours through last night had been north and warmer but that
appears to have come to an end and over the last 6-12 the latest
trend especially by the CAMs but even some of the Global models
including the GEM which had almost no winter precip over our area
yesterday has been slightly cooler and nudging back to the south.
This is getting the far northwestern sections of our CWA on a very
narrow line of possibly a light glaze to perhaps full blown ice
storm. It is so close right now that only a minor adjustment will
mean significant impacts. This isn`t as much of a surprise though,
many times if there is a big trend one direction by the models in
the 5-2/2.5 day range that tends to eventually stop with a slight
correction back the other way and that may be what is occuring
now, especially as we are now able to better sample the
disturbances.

So what are we looking at right now the best forecast shows the
freezing line either right on our border or only a few miles to
the northwest by sunrise Sunday. The sfc low will quickly move to
the northeast as a mid lvl jet rapidly intensifies across the
Lower MS Valley. The increasing lift already will have a rather
large shield of precipitation across much of LA and MS along and
well behind the cold front. As that mid lvl jet intensifies the
efficiency and strength of the precipitation and convection will
increase and there could be thunderstorms over portions of
northeast LA and into central/northern MS producing very heavy
freezing rain. This will eventually lead to the precipitation
shield tightening up with a harder back edge developing
throughout the day and that back edge is one thing we will watch
but the key is how dense and strong is the boundary layer cold
air. Can it dig into our area fast enough before that back edge
moves through. Models have historically struggled to fully realize
the shallow cold dense airmasses and if that is the case again
then we could have a problem across portions of southwest MS and
into adjacent parish of LA, east of I-55 and perhaps even as far
south as the BR metro. Many of the CAMs and regional models have
slightly shifted south and some are not holding onto 4-6 hours or
more of moderate to even heavy rain and a sfc temps of 33-36...the
entire time. As progressive as everything is I do have a little
bit of a hard time believing northwest areas like Wilkinson county
along with northern Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana would be
sitting at 33-36 for that long as the cod front continues to surge
southeast through the late morning and midday hours. If Sunday
morning gets here and the freezing line is sitting on the border
of the CWA by or before sunrise then it is likely we could be
trying to catch up as the accumulating freezing rain potential
will increase and could increase rather significantly for a a few
parishes and counties and even the potential for a light
accumulation could expand farther southeast.

Luckily the one thing with this forecast is there is a lot of
confidence in precip type for our area. It is either RAIN or
FREEZING RAIN...one or the other. There doesn`t seem to be any
real potential for snow or sleet given how strong that warm nose
is. Even as the deeper cold air starts to move in and the warm
nose shrinks the moisture will be moving out. However, feel like
its time to make a call for portions of the WSW...so upgraded
Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana, and Wilkinson to a Winter Storm
Advisory as confidence is highest there. Still keeping the Winter
Storm Watch in place on the periphery of the Advisory. There is
even a chance that we could place one or two counties/parishes in
an Ice Storm Warning with the Advisory and Watch to the southeast.
Current Winter Storm Advisory area is where Ice Storm Warning
would likely be if needed.

Cold front moves through quickly Sunday and precip shuts down
from west to east. A very key feature to watch is how quick the
shut down is. A few things to mention the northern 3rd/half of the
CWA will likely get a more prolonged and heavier precip before
the precip comes to an end leading to a loot more moisture that
could still be on the ground and bridges heading into the night.
In addition if the precip lingers one into the late afternoon or
hopefully not evening that that will lead to a shorter time
between the end of the precip and the arrival of the very cold air
which will quickly drop the air temp to freezing. Also if the
cold air is faster and stronger and is right on the cold fronts
tail or quickly moves in behind the precip that could be a small
issue. If there is a good 5 to 6 hours between the end of precip
and arrival of the cold air then there will be a better chance for
roads but mainly bridges and overall passes to dry, especially
given the very gusty conditions expected behind the cold front.
The winds will be a key feature in helping to dry things out.
However areas that get heavier precip if it doesn`t dry out or the
bridge/overpass is sheltered/protected from the wind and the cold
air arrives we will very quickly drop to freezing late afternoon
and early evening. This will provide the potential for some areas
to see the so called dreaded Black Ice. Right now we aren`t
anticipating a lot of problems from this scenario but it is
something to keep a close eye on as it could make a few areas
Monday morning a little touch and go if there is isolated to
scattered slick spots.

One last thing to really touch on and drive across everyone, it
looks like it will be cold and very cold Sunday night and likely
though Tuesday morning. Some locations of southwest MS and
adjacent LA parishes may even struggle to get about freezing Mon
day afternoon and even if they do it will likely be 3-6 hours at
best and by only a few degrees. We have already issued an Extreme
Cold Watch for the entire area for both mornings. Monday morning
will be a combination of very cold temperatures but also strong
winds leading to wind chill readings near 0 across southwest MS
and even as cold as lower to mid teens across the New Orleans
Metro. The rest of the area will see minimum wind chills values in
the single digits to lower teens Monday morning. Lows will range
from the mid teens to mid 20s for most of the area. But that is
not all and likely not the colder of the two morning. Because we
won`t heat up much Monday we will head into Monday night colder
than we were Sunday night and as high pressure builds over the
area the radiational cooling potential will be quite favorable.
Light winds through the first 1-2k ft, clear skies, and dewpoints
in the teens (with the amount of rain and likely a lot of ice
north of the area single digit dewpoint swill be hard to come by)
the stage is set for temps to just plummet over night and
currently we are carrying morning lows form the lower teens in
southwest MS to even upper teens and lower 20s in the River
Parishes. This is extremely cold for the area and outside of the
January Winter Storm last year could be some of the coldest temps
we have seen since 2018 or 2014 for most of the area. The strength
of the cold air and length of below freezing will be a big issue
and this is both a threat to life and infrastructure.

Make sure to follow all precautions to keep warm and safe.

- make sure to dress in layers and cover any exposed skin
  especially Monday morning. If school is still open and your
  child waits for a bus, Monday morning will be quite brutal with
  the wind chill in the single digits to lower teens across much
  of the area. This can quickly lead to frost bite over any
  exposed skin.
- check on loved ones, friends, and neighbors
- make sure pets are inside or at least have a place they can get
  to to stay warm, well fed, and have access to water.
- Pipes will be a concern and should be protect.
- Overnight run a very thin spaghetti like stream of water. Do
  this for both the cold and hot water in separate sinks. Remember
  a very thin stream. If you turn the water on fully and let it
  run along with numerous other people doing the same thing that
  could cause problems for municipal waters systems as the water
  pressure dangerously drops.
- if using a portable heater.
-- make sure it is approved for indoor use
-- keep 3 ft from combustibles
-- place on level surfaces only
-- keep a fire extinguisher near fireplaces

Finally begin to slowly warm up during the day Tuesday but the
next few mornings will continue to be cold and well below normal
as we look to be in a rather cold pattern to likely end out the
month and possibly head into the February. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Terminals are a mix of VFR to IFR conditions for ceilings tonight.
Showers will then begin to enter the area later this morning which
will impact visibilities but the bigger impact will be the lowering
ceilings which will put most terminals into the MVFR if not IFR
range and will likely stay there for the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Terminals at VFR to MVFR for ceilings. Rain is entereing the area
from the west/northwest at the time of publishing and will begin
reduction of visibilities due to lowering ceilings beginning at
KHUM/KBTR/KMCB around 22Z and moving westward. A narrow band of
TSRA conditions may occur moving west to east in the early morning
hours and is addressed with PROB30 coding.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A backdoor front  but will remain anchored over the coastal waters
for another 18-24 hours. By late this afternoon or early evening a
surface low will begin to slowly take shape in the northwestern Gulf
slowly drawing the front back to the north. As the surface low
deepens and moves northeast the pressure gradient will tighten and
onshore winds will increase to SCY criteria overnight and during the
day Sunday. Once the low moves to the north and then northeast of
the area Sunday afternoon a very strong cold front will quickly
surge through the area. Winds will quickly veer around to the
northwest Sunday evening and increase to sustained around 25-30 kts
with gusts approaching 40 kts. The tidal lakes will see the wind
increase first and could be flirting with Gales between 00 and 03z
Monday while the rest of the coastal waters will follow suit from
northwest to southeast. With that a Gale Watch has been issued for
all of the coastal waters from 00z Monday through 15z Monday. As
high pressure builds in Monday night into Tuesday, the northerly
winds will gradually decrease, but small craft advisory conditions
will persist.


&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for LAZ034>037-046>048.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for LAZ034-035.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
     for LAZ036-037-039-046>048-071-083.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for MSZ068>070.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for MSZ068.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
     for MSZ069>071.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MB