Hardin, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS65 KBYZ 261118
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
518 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions through the week. Mountain snowmelt will increase
  river flows. No flooding is expected at this time.

- Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of
  the week. Best chances are over south-central/western Montana
  and north-central/western Wyoming.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms (wind gusts) and moderate rain
  are possible at times, but chances have decreased as bit. Stay
  up to date with the forecast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Monday...

Today will see much above average temperatures across the region
with most locations in the 90s F. Locations along the Yellowstone
River in Rosebud and Custer counties have a 20-40% chance of
getting a high temperature over 100 F. These temperatures are
20-30 degrees above average so many are likely not acclimated to
the heat. Stay indoors and hydrated if you are sensitive to hot
temperatures.

A persistent pattern will prevail through the end of the work week.
Upper level troughing to our southwest and high pressure to the
east will keep Montana in southeast flow advecting moisture into
the region. Ensemble systems indicate that this pattern will bring
above average PWATS in the 100-175% of normal range for the
foreseeable future. PWATS at times are expected to exceed 1 inch
which is much above average for this time of year. Southeast winds
and high PWAT values are a good severe weather pattern for
Southeast Montana, however, there are aspects of this particular
pattern that will act to inhibit convective and precipitation
potential. The first is that the upper level trough is positioned
far to the west keeping a persistent 700 mb thermal ridge over the
region limiting convective potential. The second is minimal sheer
(<30 kts) for most of the week and the third is that models are
indicating that low pressure will be present over southeast
Montana keeping us dry slotted with minimal forcing. These factors
will not prevent convection but rather lower the chances for
thunderstorms and particularly severe convection.

Due to these factors, the work week is expected to be warm and
mostly dry across the region with locations east of Billings
seeing daily wind gusts in the 30s and 40s mph. High temperatures
in the 90s F are expected throughout the work week. General
thunderstorms will be possible most days this week. A few severe
storms can not be ruled out with the best chance being west of
Billings. Fire is generally not a concern at this time due to
green up.

Ensemble systems are increasingly pointing to this weekend as the
best chance for more widespread precipitation across the region.
This appears to be driven by these systems indicating that the
upper level trough will begin to lift north bringing better
forcing to the region during this time. Torgerson

.AVIATION...

12z Discussion...Southerly flow aloft will drag a few disturbances
over the area this afternoon and evening, generating isolated to
scattered convection. The best area for convection will be from
Billings west into the foothills. Prob30 groups for thunderstorms
are in place for KBIL and KLVM after 20-21z. KSHR is right on the
edge of needing a prob30 but elected to keep it out for now. KMLS
has about a 10% chance to see a thunderstorm late afternoon/early
evening. Main threat from storms will be wind gusts in the 40 to
50kt range, small hail is also possible. Brief MVFR conditions
can be expected near storms due to precipitation. Convection is
mainly diurnal so should see it dissipate late evening as the sun
sets.

Southeasterly low level winds will over spread the area around
mid day, with gusts in the 20 to 30kt range becoming common. These
winds should weaken this evening and overnight for central and
western areas, but will remain elevated over eastern areas
(KMLS/KBHK/K4BQ). Outside of convection VFR flight conditions will
prevail through Wednesday morning. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 094 060/091 061/095 062/095 061/079 054/079 052/077
    1/B 21/B    00/U    01/U    26/T    53/T    33/T
LVM 084 050/084 052/089 053/088 050/069 044/072 043/072
    6/T 54/T    11/U    22/T    37/T    54/T    23/T
HDN 096 060/092 062/095 061/095 058/082 051/080 050/079
    1/B 11/B    00/B    01/U    25/T    52/T    33/T
MLS 098 067/094 067/094 066/094 063/085 055/080 054/079
    0/N 10/N    00/N    00/B    24/T    43/T    42/W
4BQ 095 066/090 064/090 063/091 061/084 054/080 053/078
    0/B 01/N    00/N    01/U    24/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 095 061/091 061/090 061/089 058/084 053/080 053/079
    0/N 00/N    00/N    00/N    15/T    33/T    32/W
SHR 090 052/086 053/089 052/090 052/078 044/077 044/076
    1/N 22/T    01/B    02/T    26/T    45/T    35/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings