Helena Valley Northeast, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

014
FXUS65 KTFX 241756
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1056 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A round of snow develops today, lasting into early Sunday.

 - Trending milder heading into next week.

 - Breezy at times late weekend through much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 826 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026/

Today there will be light snow across portions of North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. The heaviest snowfall will be
in the Little Belts and Snowies. For lower-elevation locations
the heaviest snow will be between Belt and Geyser. With winds
increasing today, there will be blowing snow at times in some
areas. With the update, Winter Weather Advisories where considered
for the Helena and Gallatin valleys. However even if models
underperform snow amounts in those areas will remain below 2
inches so a Winter Weather Advisory wasn`t issued at this time. A
Winter Weather Advisory was also considered for 191 south of the
Gallatin Valley. But given that only one small stretch of that
road will get 3 inches, a Winter Weather Advisory wasn`t issued at
this time. The current Winter Weather Advisories handle the
current situation well. For the update, high temperatures across
North-central Montana were lowered to reflect current
observations and trends. Pops across North-central Montana were
increased through Sunday morning to better reflect current hi-res
model guidance and the current radar imagery. QPF across North-
central Montana was increased to better reflect the latest hi-res
model guidance and due to this event being northwest flow which
models struggle to handle. The rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 826 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

A modest but weakening upper level jet with mid level shortwave
will progress southward within a cyclonic northerly flow aloft
through the day today into tonight across the region. The result
will initially be for increased cloud cover early this morning
before better forcing arrives through the day. As the better
support arrives through the day, mainly light snow will develop
across much of the region. Areas that look to see greatest impacts
from snow will be between Great Falls and Lewistown, including
the northerly upslope regions in the Little Belts. The northern
portions of the Gallatin and Madison ranges also look to get in on
accumulating snowfall later in the day today into tonight. Snow
gradually diminishes late tonight and early Sunday as upper level
support wanes.

As the aforementioned system departs tonight, clearing skies
toward daybreak across the Hi-Line will foster temperatures once
again dropping below zero. Southerly to southwesterly winds
developing through the day Sunday will help moderate most areas,
though areas near and east of Havre look to hang on to the colder
temperatures for at least another day. A strengthening pressure
gradient along the Rocky Mountain Front Sunday evening will look
to develop a period of breezy winds into Monday morning. Although
these winds do not look to be overly strong, temperatures
remaining below freezing in this area will allow for any snow that
does fall today into tonight to drift at the very least.

Upper level ridging develops, and largely looks to persist
through much of next week. A continued moderating trend into early
next week is forecast, with dry conditions favored. Weak waves
cascading down the east side of the ridge may promote light
precipitation at times, but the timing and location of any
specific wave is very low confidence at this time. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow Today and Tonight:

Northerly upslope areas, including the Little Belts, Snowies, and
the northern end of the Madisons and Gallatins look to be most
favored for snow today into tonight. Forcing for ascent elsewhere
looks to be a bit more nebulous and more brief in nature, which
will help keep snowfall amounts a bit lower. The probability for 3
inches of snow is highest in the Little Belts and west end of the
Snowies, sitting between 50 and 80%.

Rocky Mountain Front wind and potential for blowing snow:

Northerly flow aloft is usually not the most conducive setup for
breezy winds along the Rocky Mountain Front, but near the surface
a pressure gradient looks to develop late afternoon Sunday into
Sunday night. Latest in-house guidance suggests the pressure
difference between Kalispell and Cut Bank will peak between 10 and
15mb Sunday evening or Sunday night. Sustained westerly to
southwesterly winds along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front will
increase as a result, and be sufficient (combined with
temperatures that remain below freezing) to at the very least
drift any existing relatively fresh snowpack. Blowing of snow is
not out of the question, and will ultimately depend on just how
much snow falls today and tonight along the Rocky Mountain Front.
25th percentile sustained wind (75% chance for a stronger
sustained wind) is around 25 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front
Sunday evening through Monday morning.

Ridging next week:

Cluster guidance and associated ensembles are essentially
unanimous in a period of upper level ridging being in place
through the upcoming work week. Small embedded features within the
ridging will promote very low-end precipitation opportunities at
times next week, but the main takeaway is for another period of
drier conditions with near to above average temperatures heading
into the end of January.
-AM

&&

.AVIATION...
24/18Z TAF Period

Predominately light snow will overspread much of Southwest through
North Central Montana over the next 24 hours as a disturbance
within northwest flow aloft moves over the Northern Rockies. While
most areas will only see light snow leading to IFR/MVFR conditions
the KLWT terminal is likely to see periods of VLIFR/LIFR
conditions during times of heavy snowfall. Mountains will be
obscured throughout the 2418/2518 TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  19  -1  25  17 /  60  70   0   0
CTB  19  -6  26  16 /  60  40   0   0
HLN  21   3  24  10 /  50  60   0   0
BZN  20   4  22   3 /  50  60  10   0
WYS  17  -5  17  -9 /  40  50  10   0
DLN  27   7  26   8 /  10  30  10   0
HVR  12 -10  15   3 /  60  30   0   0
LWT  15  -8  20   7 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Fergus County
below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and
Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls