Chadron, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

393
FXUS65 KCYS 260918
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
318 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record breaking heat continues Sunday across the area.

- Another round of widely scattered afternoon and evening
  showers and thunderstorms is anticipated Sunday, which will
  have the potential to produce gusty winds and lightning.

- A plume of monsoon moisture will arrive on Monday, moderating
  temperatures and improving rainfall chances through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Hot temperatures remain the primary forecast concern today across
the area. Showers have waned over the last few hours, but we still
have a few weak radar echos mainly over the Nebraska panhandle early
this morning, though rainfall is likely not reaching the ground.
However, cloud cover and breezy conditions continuing in the area
are leading to exceptionally warm nighttime temperatures, especially
in western Nebraska. As of this writing, temperatures have yet to
fall below 80 degrees at both Chadron and Alliance. The all time
warmest daily minimum temperature record is 82 degrees in
Chadron and 78 degrees in Alliance, both of which could be
challenged if temperatures continue to refuse to drop this
morning. Of course, these areas will need to remain above those
thresholds late this evening too in order to break those
records.

Expect a very quick warm-up this morning as the heat wave reaches
its peak aloft. Surface winds are expected to be northwest across
most of the area this morning, which may impact the precise surface
temperature recorded at several locations. Yesterday`s winds were
southerly for the most part, which provided downslope warming
enhancement in the Chadron area. That will not be the case today,
but northwest is a better downslope wind direction for several other
locations, including Cheyenne. Overall, expect highs today to be
very similar to yesterday, in the low to mid 90s at Rawlins and
Laramie, upper 90s in Cheyenne, and 100s below about 5500 feet in
elevation. Forecast highs exceed daily records at all of our climate
sites today, with the exception of Rawlins. In addition, several
locations have a slim but non-zero chance to tie or break all-time
warmth records. For example, in Cheyenne, the forecast high is 98
degrees, but the 90th percentile is 100 degrees (which matches the
all-time record). Thus, Cheyenne has approximately a 10% chance to
tie the all-time heat record today. Scottsbluff, Alliance, Sidney,
and Laramie all have between a 5% and 10% chance to exceed their all-
time records, which is 110 degrees at Scottsbluff and Alliance, 108
degrees at Sidney, and 94 degrees at Laramie.

Considering that the atmosphere is really not all that dry during
this heatwave, we will easily reach convective temperatures
once again Sunday afternoon. Synoptic forcing for ascent is a
little weaker than it was yesterday, meaning that we will
probably get a slower start to thunderstorm activity with
overall slightly lower coverage. One exception to that is near
the mountains of southern Wyoming, where probabilities for
rainfall are a touch higher than yesterday. The main concerns
with today`s activity will be lightning and gusty/erratic winds,
though a brief downpour and small hail cannot be ruled out.
Again today, the storms will not be strictly dry, but the winds
may be more notable than the rainfall. Despite a slower start
and lower coverage, don`t be surprised to see widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing well into the
evening and possibly even after midnight.

The heat will finally begin to ease on Monday as another surge of
monsoon moisture pushes into the area. Recent model trends have
accelerated the arrival of moisture aloft, such that it may be more
like Monday morning rather than afternoon. As a result, the latest
official forecast has much more cloud cover and even possibly a few
showers across the area Monday morning. This has also moderated high
temperature forecasts Monday afternoon. The latest forecasts have
highs only around the climatological 90 to 95th percentile, while we
usually reserve Heat Advisory headlines for the 99th percentile and
higher. Therefore, we really cannot justify continuing heat
headlines into Monday with probabilities for reaching local
criteria generally at 25% or less. With this morning`s update,
we have modified the expiration time of the Heat Advisory and
Extreme Heat Warming to 9PM today instead of 9PM Monday to
account for the reduced high temperature forecast on Monday.
With the arrival of the next monsoon plume, expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening,
with notably higher probabilities for appreciable rainfall
compared to the weekend. A few isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Plentiful monsoon moisture is expected to remain in place over the
area for at least Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures moderate a
little closer to seasonal averages. We will still be warmer than
average, but perhaps by just 3 to 5 degrees compared to 10 to 12
degrees. Ensemble mean precipitable water remains at or above the
climatological 90th percentile during this period, suggesting daily
chances for at least scattered if not numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms. Currently, ensembles are most optimistic
about rainfall chances on Tuesday for the majority of our area.
It`s too early to get into specifics concerning storm mode and
severe potential at this time, but the environment appears to
support a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms each day.

A pattern change is expected to occur across the western CONUS on
Thursday. A shortwave trough riding over the top of the ridge will
push across the area. Models are in fairly good agreement showing
upper level winds turning more westerly across much of the I-80
corridor and Great Basin region, advecting much drier air into the
area and suppressing monsoon moisture to the south. Meanwhile, the
upper level ridge will try to retrograde back to the west and
broaden itself significantly further to the west. Therefore, we
will probably completely lose our tap to the monsoon by the end
of the work week. Recycled moisture and a few upper level
shortwaves moving over the top of the ridge may still keep
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast, but the outlook is not very optimistic for widespread
rainfall. As the ridge sets up over the southwestern US and
amplifies again, we can expect another warming trend to
gradually nudge temperatures upward into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
overnight hours and into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop after about 20Z Sunday and have the best chances on
impacting KLAR and KCYS. Hence the PROB30 groups for those two
sites. Thereafter, progressing into the afternoon hours, these
storms will move into the Nebraska Panhandle. Due to low confidence
on impacts to a specific terminal, for this TAF forecast, kept any
mention of activity out for now. For the 12Z TAFs, activity may have
to be introduced for KBFF and KAIA, at least. Outside of any shower
or thunderstorm, winds will generally pose no aviation threat. But,
expect gusty and erratic winds in any storms if one were to come
near or go over a terminal.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-102-107-
     108-118-119.
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ002-
     095.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ003-019>021-
     054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ