Gering, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

386
FXUS65 KCYS 261137
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
537 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for
  the valleys of Carbon and Albany county today.

- A break from the record warmth is expected today and Friday as
  a cold front pushes in from the northeast. A few rain and snow
  showers will be possible.

- Another round of near record warmth and critical fire weather
  conditions is expected Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Temperatures remain extremely warm across the area as a light breeze
and ample cloud cover help to trap heat after another day of record
shattering heat on Wednesday. Several locations have already been
within 5 to 10 degrees of daily record highs shortly after midnight,
but a break is on the way. A series of shortwave troughs aloft are
passing well to our north today, helping to flatten the ridge. Each
upper level disturbance will also be followed by a surface high
pressure. The first, weaker system is moving off to the east this
morning, and it`s diffuse cold front is analyzed approaching our
northern zones at this hour. Winds have already turned to the north
or northeast in the northern Nebraska panhandle, but cold air lags
behind somewhat. Northeast winds will increase over the next several
hours over the High Plains as this first frontal boundary pushes
southward and eventually stalls up against the Laramie Range.
Temperatures will be considerably cooler than yesterday over the
plains, and highs will likely be reached during the morning hours as
gradual cold air advection holds down temperatures during the
afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be 30 to 40 degrees cooler
than yesterday in Lusk, Chadron, and Alliance areas. The highest
uncertainty in high temperature is for the Cheyenne area. The front
will stall somewhere around the city midday today, which could allow
temperatures to briefly climb into the low 70s before dropping into
the upper 40s by sunset. These frontal systems often end up cooler
and progress further than modeled, so highs for today were nudged to
the NBM 25th percentile. Further west, we will not see temperatures
as warm as yesterday, but Carbon and Albany counties will not see
the boost in low-level moisture limiting fire weather concerns
further east. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
expected here once again as westerly winds gusting 35 to 45 mph
return once again and RH drops to between 15 and 18 percent.
Critical conditions are possible (about 30% chance), but confidence
was too low to issue a Red Flag Warning at this time.

The cold front will be reinforced late this afternoon as the next,
stronger shortwave trough passes to our north. A strong surface high
pressure will slide down in the lee of the Rockies tonight into
Friday morning. NAEFS mean MSLP values are around the 99th
percentile of climatology by Friday morning! This will help push the
stalled boundary into Carbon and Albany counties, leading to a wind
shift and improved moisture for those areas. Frontogenesis pushing
through the area will also provide another chance for some scattered
showers overnight, that may mix with or change over to snow heading
into Friday morning as the airmass continues to cool. Forcing will
be strongest where the front struggles to cross the terrain, between
Laramie and Cheyenne. This is also where there is the highest chance
for a wetting rainfall (0.10" liquid precipitation or more), which
is only around 20 to 30%. A dusting to a half inch or so of snow
accumulation is possible around the I-80 summit by late morning
Friday. In addition, areas of fog are expected to develop in this
area tonight into Friday morning.

Friday will be the coolest day of the week as the strong surface
high pressure system begins to retreat off to the east. As this
occurs, expect winds to shift to the southeast or south, and may be
gusty at times especially in the Laramie Valley and southern Laramie
range. Highs were once again nudged towards the NBM 25th percentile,
and even a touch lower around Laramie to Cheyenne where southerly
winds and cloud cover usually suggest temperature cooler than
guidance. As the reverse-pressure gradient strengthens Friday
afternoon, expect southerly winds to increase over the High Plains
into the overnight hours. Due to the strength of this departing high
pressure system, we may have a fairly potent nocturnal low-level jet
event setting up into Saturday morning. The latest NBM guidance
depicts a 20 to 30 percent chance of high winds along the Lusk to
Chadron corridor, which will certainly warrant another look over the
next few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The seemingly unbreakable ridge aloft will rebound quickly on
Saturday, initiating another period of rapid warm air advection. 700-
mb temperatures will climb up to around +6 to +9C by Saturday
afternoon, and remain there through Monday. These values are around
the climatological 99th percentile over Wyoming, and between the
90th and 97.5 in Nebraska. A few daily record highs look likely on
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday once again, but the new March monthly
records set either yesterday or last Saturday should remain safe.
Expect high temperatures back in the 70s over most of the area,
creeping into the 80s in the Nebraska panhandle and lower elevations
of eastern Wyoming each day during this period. With the warmup,
fire weather will also become a concern once again. The surface high
will linger over the High Plains Saturday, keeping the surface
trough axis along the Laramie Range. This should confine the
stronger westerly winds to Carbon and Albany counties on Saturday,
but this will spread eastward Sunday. Sunday currently has the best
chance for another round of critical fire weather conditions. There
is more uncertainty for Monday as a highly unseasonable weather
pattern sets up over the western CONUS. As the ridge axis shifts
into the south central US, southwest flow over the Four Corners will
pull deep moisture northward, which will resemble the monsoonal
pattern that usually sets up in late summer. Moisture mixing down to
the surface should boost dewpoints for Monday, and this may prevent
critical fire weather conditions, while also providing a chance for
afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity mainly tied to the higher
terrain.

A large scale synoptic pattern change is now favored for the last
day of March into the first few days of April. The powerful ridge
aloft shifting east will finally break down the persistent blocking
over the western US and allow for Pacific moisture to push inland.
While the details concerning exact temperatures and how much
moisture could fall remain highly uncertain, there is now medium to
high confidence in a substantial pattern change during this period
that should bring temperatures down closer to seasonal averages, and
at least present a few chances for rain and snow, unlike the last
few weeks which have been completely dry for the entire region.
Unfortunately, a more active pattern will also allow for the
potential for high winds to creep back into the forecast in early
April. The record shattering warmth that has dominated the second
half of March has seriously exacerbated the drought situation across
the area and decimated the already paltry mountain snowpack. The
upcoming pattern change will at least provide a glimmer of hope for
drought relief, but ensembles are far from a consensus on widespread
wet weather. About half of ensemble members maintain a storm track
just north of the area, which would mean the potential for dry
slotting and more wind rather than the much needed rain or snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front pushing south this morning is leading to gusty
northeast winds at Nebraska terminals along with scattered
shower activity. Rainfall is generally light and not expected to
drop VIS, but lowering CIGs will work their way south this
morning. Expect MVFR conditions through much of the day at AIA
and CDR, with occasional dips into IFR possible. This will reach
CYS, BFF, and SNY later today and this evening. Confidence in
the timing is lower at those locations. Colder air moving in
this evening will allow the scattered shower activity to mix
with snow. A brief VIS drop is possible, but the probability was
too low to add to the TAF at this time.

West winds gusting 30 to 40 knots will continue at RWL and LAR
through the day today, and then abruptly turn to the northeast
around sundown as the cold front pushes over the terrain barrier
into the area. LAR is expected to see CIG drops this evening and
overnight, but MVFR CIGs may not quite reach RWL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN