Norfolk, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

293
FXUS63 KOAX 261758
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high to extreme fire danger is expected today, with winds d
  gusting 35 to 45 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued near
  the Nebraska/Kansas border.

- Very high to extreme fire danger will persist through the
  weekend and will be particularly high on Saturday.

- Cooler on Friday with highs in the 50s. 60s return Saturday,
  followed by 70s and 80s into early next week.

- Precipitation chances will increase by the early to middle
  part of next week, with a 40-60% chance by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this today features largely zonal flow aloft,
colored by a number of weaker shortwaves moving through the
mid/upper flow across the northernmost tiers of the CONUS states.
Zooming in to the local area, recent observations show that a
dramatic wind shift has arrived and pushed into southeast Nebraska,
bringing strong gusts between 30 and 40 mph, while warm temperatures
into the 70s hold on across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.
Where temperatures have been warmest, surface moisture is still high
and we`ve seen some shallow convection (that have included
isolated lightning activity) develop and waft in from central
Nebraska. As that wind shift continues to push through increase
wind speeds behind it, the short overlap of decreasing moisture
and increasing winds will result in a very high to extreme fire
danger across southeast Nebraska that will continue into the
overnight hours. A Red Flag Warning continues to be in place for
this threat.

Winds overnight will trend quieter, but gusts to 20-25 mph will
remain. We`ll bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s as that cold
air sinks southward, and make for a very chilly juxtaposition
compared to the warmer mornings we`ve enjoyed lately. By late
tomorrow morning, winds will trend gustier and join drier humidity
values to increase fire danger to very to extreme. A Red Flag
Warning is in place midday Friday, continuing into the early evening
for locations that see the strongest wind gusts. Cooler highs in the
50s will give some resistance to fire starts, but once one does, it
will be difficult to control.

Saturday and Beyond:

By early Saturday, the mid/upper pattern will have heights building
over the Desert Southwest while the main shortwave that brought the
cooldown continues to shift eastward. In its wake, a thermal ridge
will build over the High Plains as the surface pressure gradient
increases to ramp up southerly winds. The combination of the
increasing southerly winds/gusts and the building temperatures in
the low levels will bring fire danger back to the forefront of the
message. Temperature peak in the 60s, winds gusts range between 40-
50 mph at their peak, and RH values drop between 10 and 20%.
Comparing the fire danger between the increased fire danger days,
Saturday is by far and away the higher concern. The window for
Saturday will be as early as 9 AM lasting to 10 PM based on the
latest forecast, thankfully with no wind shifts anticipated
during the evening/overnight hours.

Sunday onward sees overall fire danger begin to decrease, but still
peaking in the very high category as temperatures ramp up but are
joined by limited winds. Temperatures peak Monday in the 80s, hold
on for Tuesday after cooling about 5 degrees, and then cool to near
normal (with plenty of room for uncertainty looking as temperature
spreads reach 25+ degrees) for the latter half of the week. Chances
for precipitation will be also on the increase for the late work
week, as a seasonable trough looks to depart the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Strong winds have ramped up and slightly ahead of schedule this
afternoon, with speeds as strong as 35-40 kts at times. VFR
conditions are expected to last through the period, with some
lower cloud activity ongoing near KLNK and KOMA where some
shallow showers and even a rumble of thunder or two have
developed this afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish this
evening into the overnight hours, with speeds getting closer to
20 kts overnight before increasing again late tomorrow morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ065-066-
     068-078-088>093.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen