Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

012
FXUS64 KEPZ 261130
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
530 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday, with
   the best chances for rain in area mountains.

 - Dry southwest flow aloft will keep the area mostly dry
   Wednesday through Saturday. Otero and Hudspeth counties could
   see thunderstorms later in the work week due to moisture from
   the east.

 - We will finish out May with high temperatures running a few
   degrees below average each day through the coming weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon May 25 2026

An approaching upper level storm system brought a nice change of
pace to our weather in the form of wide spread showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Drier air will be pushing into the area
tonight and that will wrap up our rain chances and clouds for most
of the area. But the upper level trough will be moving slow
enough and despite the drier air moving in, we will still have
enough moisture to give area mountains a chance for more rain
showers Tuesday afternoon. Most of us will stay dry, but a few
lucky folks could get a little more rain. Our high temperatures on
Tuesday will continue to run 5 to 8 degrees below average.

As the first upper level trough moves off we will see a drier
southwest flow set up across the region. This pattern will keep
us dry into the coming weekend with temperatures continuing to run
near or a little below average. The one gotcha we have to keep an
eye on is the fact that deeper moisture will continue to lurk
just to the east of the area. For the most part the southwest flow
aloft will keep the moisture to our east, but we could see some
moisture slip into the eastern part of the area and give parts of
Otero and Hudspeth Counties a chance for thunderstorms. As we
start June early next week, we will be mainly dry with seasonal
temperatures. Still no sign of any triple digit temperatures in
the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies currently FEW,
will become SKC through the morning, then eventually FEW-SCT at
10-15 kft with afternoon CU development. Winds generally light at
5-10 knots through the period, becoming SW/W by the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 431 AM MDT Tue May 26 2026

Low to Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon (dependent on
location) across the area. Drier air will begin to infiltrate the
region as southwest to zonal flow resumes. However, remnant
moisture stills remains in place across portions of the forecast
area, where isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible this afternoon. The focus will be over the Gila and
Sacramento Mtns with the potential for gusty outflow winds and
dangerous lightning in the vicinity of any development. Min RH
values will drop to less than 15 percent across far southwestern
NM with above 15 percent values for areas east of the Rio Grande
Valley. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below the
seasonal average. Winds will become south to southwest during the
afternoon at 8 to 15 mph. Afternoon smoke ventilation rates will
range from west to east, very good to excellent along and west of
the Rio Grande Valley and fair to good areas to the east.

For the remainder of the work week, a slow progressing upper level
system over NV/CA/OR tri-state area will further increase
southwesterly flow across NM. Drier air will continue to advect in
across the area, along with daily afternoon breezy winds. Elevated
to near-critical fire weather conditions will return to the
forecast through the remainder of the work week, especially for
areas west of the RGV across southwest NM. Smoke ventilation rates
will be very good to excellent each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            53  85  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  86  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               56  86  60  91 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  65  44  69 /  10   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    54  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              49  79  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   54  90  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  86  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                54  87  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             59  92  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               55  82  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   57  91  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  87  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  87  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            53  86  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  89  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  90  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  85  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  44  77  47  80 /  10   0   0  10
Mescalero                45  75  47  79 /  10   0   0  20
Timberon                 43  72  46  76 /  10   0   0  10
Winston                  43  78  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                53  83  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                50  85  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  80  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   48  82  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  86  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               48  81  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  50  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   55  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  87  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  87  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers