Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS64 KEPZ 260926
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 326 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

 - Hot temperatures persisting through the rest of July and into
   early August. Lowland highs 100 to 105 each afternoon, posing a
   risk of heat-related illnesses.

 - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the high
   elevations and Southwest New Mexico into next week. Brief heavy
   rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding will be
   possible each afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Persistent upper high over the Southern Rockies will remain fixed
over the region through at least the remainder of late July,
driving the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS 500-mb
height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations
stronger than is typical for the middle of the North America
Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any
storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture
and convective temperatures/terrain forcing producing meager
instability. Precipitable water values are just over an inch
through much of central New Mexico, with drier air across far west
Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again across the
southern NM high elevations and portions of the southwest New
Mexico lowlands. El Paso/Las Cruces should remain dry. Main threat
will be localized flash flooding, as storm motions remain very
slow if not stationary and capable of 1-2 inch/hour rainfall
rates.

Hot temperatures will also continue into the week ahead due to
this suffocating upper ridge. Highs will run 5-10 degrees above
normal for late July, which means lowland highs in the 100 to 105
degree range. Another Heat Advisory will need to be considered
for El Paso and Rio Grande Valley this week.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high for
Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable
day-to- day changes with sensible weather elements. Overall
weather pattern will continue to be warmer-than-normal
temperatures and isolated rain chances focused mainly around the
southern NM high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a slight
retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week of
August, which is still a poor weather pattern for rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high
clouds. A widespread cu field is anticipated to develop during the
morning, w/afternoon convection possible KDMN/KTCS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through
the next several days. Thunderstorms will favor the Gila wilderness
and Sacramento mountains, as well as the boot heel of NM with
more sparse storm activity only occasionally making it into lower
deserts of southwestern NM. Temperatures will be hot in lower
elevation deserts with minimum RH of 15 to 20% being common in the
afternoons. Wind concerns will be limited to thunderstorm
outflows on localized scales for brief time frames. ERCs/Fire
Danger remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80 104  80 105 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            71 100  71 100 /  10   0  10  10
Las Cruces               73 102  73 103 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               76 102  77 102 /  10   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               57  78  58  79 /  10  20   0  20
Truth or Consequences    74 101  76 102 /  10   0  10   0
Silver City              66  93  66  94 /  10  40  10  30
Deming                   73 102  73 103 /  10  10  10   0
Lordsburg                72  98  72  99 /  20  10  20  10
West El Paso Metro       80 104  80 104 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                74 103  74 105 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             78 105  78 106 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               72  97  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   78 104  78 105 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             77 102  76 103 /  10   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           80 103  81 104 /  10  10  10   0
Jornada Range            76 102  77 103 /  10   0   0  10
Hatch                    75 105  76 106 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 77 103  77 104 /  10   0  10   0
Orogrande                74 101  75 102 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  61  90  63  91 /  10  20   0  10
Mescalero                61  90  62  91 /  10  10   0  20
Timberon                 59  88  60  89 /  10  10   0  10
Winston                  63  92  65  93 /  10  30  10  10
Hillsboro                71  99  72 100 /  10  20  10  10
Spaceport                72 101  73 102 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             61  93  61  95 /  10  50  10  50
Hurley                   68  97  68  98 /  10  40  10  20
Cliff                    68  98  68  99 /  20  40  20  30
Mule Creek               66  95  66  95 /  10  30  20  20
Faywood                  69  96  69  97 /  10  30  10  10
Animas                   72  98  71  99 /  30  10  20   0
Hachita                  71  98  70  99 /  30  10  10   0
Antelope Wells           70  97  69  98 /  30  30  30   0
Cloverdale               66  91  64  91 /  40  40  40  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99