Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

798
FXUS64 KEPZ 241108
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
408 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 407 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

 - Complex interaction of upper level systems and a back door cold
   front will lead to precipitation across the region through
   Sunday.

 - 6 to 10 inches of snow with ice accumulations of up to one
   tenth of an inch is forecast for the Sacramento Mountains.
   Areas above 9500 feet will see higher snowfall totals.

 - Up to 3 inches of snow with up to 0.20" of ice is possible for
   Hudspeth County with areas of freezing rain possible as early
   as Saturday Morning.

 - There is an increasing risk for some accumulating snow for the
   Tularosa and Rio Grande Valleys Sunday Morning, including El
   Paso. This area has the highest uncertainty for snow and ice
   totals.

 - Bitterly cold temperatures with wind chill values in the single
   digits for eastern areas and as cold as 15 below for the
   Sacramento Mountains Sunday and Monday mornings.

 - Chilly and dry early next week behind the storm system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

The major winter storm that is set to affect a large chunk of the
country is underway with the center of the UL low still off the
Baja Coast, pushing anomalously moist flow ahead of it. Multiple
small scale impulses ahead of the low are aiding in precipitation
production including isolated thunderstorms. This trend will
continue through Sunday morning via multiple waves. Expect on and
off precipitation throughout the night with more sustained precip
expected by Saturday afternoon lasting well into the overnight
hours before precipitation becomes more scattered as an impulse
now over Southern ID merges with our Baja low and exits into the
Plains by mid-day Sunday, taking any remaining precipitation with
it.

We are still on track to receive a generous amount of rainfall
from this system. NBM 50th percentile brings 0.75-1.00"+ of
additional liquid to areas east of the Continental Divide,
trending down to about 0.60" for areas closer to the AZ border and
the Gila. There will be locally higher totals for anywhere that
sees an embedded thunderstorm. The million dollar question
remains, "how much will fall as freezing or frozen precipitation?"
Well, that has changed. True to form forecast guidance has done a
miserable job with the progression of the arctic air. Arctic air
has already spilled into Lincoln County with temperatures hovering
around 30 degrees. Snow was falling in Cloudcroft. It`s a bit
difficult to say the precip type in Mayhill, but the sky cameras
there show a layer of ice on them. Models have caught onto this
colder trend showing much of the day Saturday with a mixture of
freezing rain and snow for the Sacramento Mountains. Given recent
trends, I decided to upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory in the
Sacramento Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning for 6 to 10 inches
of snow plus up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulations,
especially along East Slope areas toward Chaves and Lincoln
County. I also moved the start time back to 9PM, which means it is
valid at the time of this writing. Temperatures were tricky as
well since the NBM has a time lag, and what`s in the official
forecast on weather.gov may be a tad too warm. Nevertheless, there
may be a variety of precip types for the mountains throughout the
morning and early afternoon before the arctic air pushes west
once and for good later in the afternoon.

Into the lowlands, trends are colder and therefore snowier and
icier. Latest guidance shows sub-freezing air entrenching itself
into portions of Hudspeth County for Saturday, meaning a longer
window for freezing rain. The quicker push to the west and colder
air behind it has ramped up snowfall totals in all deterministic
solutions as well as ice accumulations. Most deterministic
guidance now brings snow well into the Tularosa Basin with cold
air damming along the Franklins before cold air spills south into
the Rio Grande Valley, with some guidance giving these areas 1 to
3 inches for the Tularosa basin and up to an inch on the Rio
Grande side, including Central and East El Paso, along with some
ice accumulation from freezing rain. It is foolish to chase models
given the abrupt reversal in trends, so I did not change any
winter weather headlines for the lowlands except to up the wording
on the existing advisory. If trends continue though, more winter
weather headlines or upgrades may be needed. Keep checking back
with the forecast.

In addition to the snow and ice, it will be cold. Our eastern
areas will see lows well into the teens and single digits.
Factoring in wind, wind chill values will be as low as 5 in
Hudspeth County and 15 below across the Sacramento Mountains.
Those values are near Extreme Cold Warning criteria. As such, I
went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for Sunday and
Monday mornings for much of Hudspeth County and the Sacramento
Mountains. Elsewhere, lows will drop into the teens and 20s,
especially Monday Morning. For Sunday morning`s low it will depend
on far west and how strong the cold front pushes. Tuesday morning
will be very cold as well, so more Advisories may be needed on
future forecast updates.

Following our winter storm, the rest of the week, Monday onward,
will see quasi-zonal flow aloft, which will allow temperatures to
gradually recover though the entire period will be below average.
Finally, by Friday, both the GFS and ECMWF show a compact low that
will bring us another chance for precip and maybe some wind.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 407 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Mostly MVFR to occasional IFR conditions can be expected today and
tonight across the area, with SCT-BKN060 OVC150 layers to 300.
Scattered OVC040 6SM -SHRA with occasional BKN-OVC010 3-5SM SHRA
BR. Over the Sacramento Mtns...widespread OVC030 3-5SM -SN with
isolated OVC010 1SM SN BR. After 18Z...isolated snow showers
developing over lowlands of Otero and Hudspeth Counties. These
snow showers possibly spreading to El Paso and Sierra Counties
after 03Z tonight. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning
becoming west 7-10 knots west of the RG Valley this afternoon,
and east/southeast 8-12 knots to the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

No fire weather concerns through this forecast period. Lowland
rain showers and mountain snow will continue today, with some snow
developing over the lowlands from the RG Valley east late tonight.
All precipitation should end around noon Sunday, with temperatures
turning chilly. Dry Monday through Thursday with temperatures
gradually warming back to near normal. No significant winds are
expected through the period, leading to rather unfavorable vent
rates.

Min RH: Lowlands 65-80% today decreasing to 30-45% Sunday through
Wednesday. Mountains 80-95% today decreasing to 20-30% Gila/Black
Range Sunday through Wednesday, and 35-50% Sacramento Mtns Sunday
through Wednesday. Vent rates poor-fair through Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  30  44  24  46 / 100  80   0   0
Sierra Blanca            21  32  15  36 / 100  90   0   0
Las Cruces               30  44  22  45 /  90  70   0   0
Alamogordo               23  39  15  41 / 100  80   0   0
Cloudcroft               13  23   8  28 / 100  80   0   0
Truth or Consequences    27  44  23  46 /  80  50   0   0
Silver City              29  45  22  46 /  80  50   0   0
Deming                   35  52  24  51 /  80  60   0   0
Lordsburg                34  51  23  50 /  80  40   0   0
West El Paso Metro       32  43  27  43 / 100  80   0   0
Dell City                17  31   7  32 /  90  80   0   0
Fort Hancock             28  42  19  46 / 100  90   0   0
Loma Linda               21  33  19  34 / 100  90   0   0
Fabens                   29  42  20  44 / 100  90   0   0
Santa Teresa             33  44  23  43 / 100  80   0   0
White Sands HQ           29  43  24  43 /  90  80   0   0
Jornada Range            29  44  18  45 /  90  70   0   0
Hatch                    31  49  21  50 /  80  60   0   0
Columbus                 40  53  27  50 /  90  70   0   0
Orogrande                23  38  16  40 / 100  80   0   0
Mayhill                   8  34   9  40 / 100  80   0   0
Mescalero                13  33  10  37 / 100  80   0   0
Timberon                 13  29  10  33 / 100  80   0   0
Winston                  20  41  13  42 /  80  50   0   0
Hillsboro                27  46  23  46 /  80  50   0   0
Spaceport                24  44  17  46 /  80  60   0   0
Lake Roberts             27  44  16  46 /  80  50   0   0
Hurley                   29  48  21  47 /  70  50   0   0
Cliff                    28  52  15  53 /  80  40   0   0
Mule Creek               29  47  11  50 /  80  30   0   0
Faywood                  32  47  25  46 /  70  60   0   0
Animas                   37  53  25  51 /  90  40   0   0
Hachita                  36  52  23  49 /  90  50   0   0
Antelope Wells           38  54  26  51 / 100  60   0   0
Cloverdale               37  48  30  46 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for Salt Basin-
     Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Sunday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley
     of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande
     Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Monday for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt
     Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for Northern
     Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains.

NM...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for Otero Mesa.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Sunday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa
     Basin/White Sands.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Monday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
     Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
     Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner