Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

937
FXUS61 KBGM 261808
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
208 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The frontal system that moves through today will exit quickly early
Friday morning. QPF amounts were increased for this system,
especially as it first moves into the region. PoPs were also added
for the off-and-on lake effect snow showers Friday through Saturday
night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered rain showers are expected today and tonight as a low
pressure system drags a cold front through the region. A much colder
air mass then moves in behind the front.

2) Occasional lake effect snow showers will be possible to start the
weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will keep conditions dry through
the weekend.

3) There will be multiple chances for showers during the first half
of next week as high pressure slides out to sea.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak wave will bring some showers through Central NY early this
morning though conditions are quite dry. For what can be seen on
radar is just virga but there may be some sprinkles or light rain
showers before it exits around dawn. Most of the morning hours will
then be dry. Temperatures will climb into the 60s and possibly low
70s for those in valley locations.

The main story today is the low pressure system that will move
through the region this afternoon. This will initially bring showers
to Central NY this afternoon but then spread south into Northeast PA
this evening. Extending behind this low is a cold front that will
sweep north to south through the overnight hours. Showers will
gradually end late tonight into early Friday morning as northerly
flow advects much colder air into the region. As it does, there may
be a brief transition to snow or rain/snow mix. Behind this front,
lake effect and upslope will support light snow showers over
portions of Central NY through the late morning hours. A light
dusting of snow will be possible for some higher elevations as well
as in the Finger Lakes Region.

SPC has General Thunder for the entire region except the northern
half of Oneida County. They did extend the Marginal Risk across
Central PA and that just clips Steuben (NY) and Bradford (PA)
Counties. The majority of model guidance are showing very little of
any instability, 100 to maybe 200 J/kg of MLCAPE over Northeast PA.
There is slightly better elevated instability. The 0-6km bulk shear
will be quite high, over 50 kts. The timing of the system does not
favor taking advantage of the instability as precipitation moves
into this area late. Given this, there is low confidence that there
will be thunderstorms, but it will be something that will still need
to be monitored. If skies can clear more than forecasted and the
system moves in slightly quicker than expected, then thunderstorms
would become more probable. In addition, WPC has most of the region
in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Antecedent conditions
remain wet from recent precipitation events so flash flood guidance
is low. With this system, PWATs are as high as 1.25", which is about
3 standard deviations above normal. Localized heavy rainfall could
result in minor hydro issues, mainly in poor drainage areas and
where ponding is common. Rivers and streams are low enough that
stream flooding is not expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will return late this week and over the weekend. Cold,
northerly flow will support occasional light lake effect snow
showers over Central NY Friday and Saturday. Any additional
accumulations from these will be light, less than a half inch.
Temperatures trend colder through Saturday as temperatures will
differ 20 to 30 degrees between today and Friday. Gusty winds will
also make it feel blustery at times, especially early Saturday
morning when wind chills will drop near single digits. The return of
southwesterly flow  Sunday will help bring in warmer air as the cold
air mass retreats northward. More seasonal temperatures are then
expected through the first half of next week.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

The high pressure will slide out to sea late in the weekend. That
will open the door for multiple systems to follow the zonal flow
into the region. Plus, with the high over the Atlantic, that will be
favorable for moisture to be advected from the Gulf into any system
moving across eastern CONUS. Despite warmer conditions Monday
through Wednesday, there is a chance for showers each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the afternoon hours.

Rain and an associated cold front will move through the region
this evening, starting around 21-22z. The surface is very dry,
with dewpoint depressions in to 20-30 degree range, so the
initial rain should not introduce any restrictions for at least
an hour as the surface saturates. Restrictions will follow,
with MVFR/Fuel Alt expected initially, falling to IFR at
RME/ITH/BGM after 00z. Confidence in IFR at RME is medium as
the NW flow should provide downsloping off the Tug Hill Plateau
into the terminal, which would lift ceilings, but with moderate
to periods of heavy rain expected from 00z-04z, IFR ceilings
cannot be ruled out. ITH and BGM should see IFR ceilings settle
in after 00z, and remain into the morning hours as an inversion
sets up at the surface and keeps low clouds over the area.

SYR is showing signs for IFR ceilings but trends are pointing
towards ceilings hovering above IFR through the period. Ceilings
could drop to IFR briefly during heavy rain this evening, but
confidence in it occurring is too low to include in the TAF at
this time.

Guidance for ELM is showing IFR ceilings, but NW flow is also
occurring during this period. When NW flow occurs at ELM,
downsloping off high elevations NW of the terminal usually keeps
ceilings in the 1200ft range, and this was reflected in the TAF.

AVP will be the last to see the rain and thus restrictions
develop at the terminal. MVFR/Fuel Alt conditions should develop
after 03z and last into the morning hours.



VFR conditions expected until the late afternoon, where a
frontal system will bring rain into the region with associated
restrictions. Ceilings and visibility will drop to MVFR/Fuel Alt with
the rain, with increasing confidence that IFR conditions
may occur towards the end of the period tomorrow evening.


Outlook:

Thursday night...A rainy cold front will drop northwest to
southeast through the region with likely MVFR to IFR
restrictions. Snow may mix in before precipitation ends late
Thursday night.

Friday morning...Lingering ceiling restriction possible early,
but improving conditions expected by midday.

Friday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions.

Monday...A low chance of rain showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC