Henrietta, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS61 KBUF 261825
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There has been a northward shift in the rainfall axis across western
NY through this evening, with higher rainfall amounts expected from
the Buffalo metro to the Finger Lakes region.

There were also minor changes to the SPC Day 1 Outlook across the
western Southern Tier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain this afternoon and evening, with a chance of a
few thunderstorms and downpours across western NY.

2) Cold temperatures and occasional lake effect snow returns for
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain this afternoon and evening, with a
chance of a few thunderstorms and downpours across western NY.

A weak area of low pressure is expected to move along a southward
moving cold front across western NY through this evening. As the
system approaches, strong moisture advection will move into western
NY while a strong area of westerlies align parallel to a tightening
thermal gradient overhead. Widespread rain will continue to move
into the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon.

The focus for convection will be ahead of the cold front as it sags
southward into this evening. Thunderstorms propagate eastward into
the western Southern Tier through this evening. Surface based
instability is still expected to be weak, however strong deep layer
shear may result in an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with
the primary risks being damaging winds and large hail, however an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.

Recent model runs have a northward shift in the axis of rainfall
across the forecast area today. Rainfall amounts have increased to
0.5-0.8" across the Buffalo Metro to the Finger Lakes region between
2pm-8pm, with high probability of amounts exceeding 0.5". While this
is the main focus for higher rainfall amounts through 8pm, repeated
rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected across the western
Southern Tier through this evening. The rain may be moderate to
briefly heavy for a few hours late this afternoon and evening, with
the best chance of heavy downpours south of the NYS Thruway.
Rainfall amounts are unlikely to be heavy enough to support much
flood risk, although minor ponding of water in poor drainage areas
is possible. More organized thunderstorms and the main severe
weather risk will remain south and west of the area, with just a few
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible across the
western Southern Tier where weak instability develops.

Organized rain will end from north to south late evening through the
early overnight as the front moves south towards the Mid Atlantic
states. Northerly upslope flow in the wake of the cold front will
likely support some lingering light showers or drizzle overnight
south of Lake Ontario, especially across the higher terrain south of
the NYS Thruway. A few wet snowflakes may mix in late tonight if
precipitation holds on long enough.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold temperatures and occasional lake effect snow
returns for Friday and Saturday.

A cold front will cross the region on Thursday evening, ushering in
a cold airmass that will bring temperatures well below normal once
again for Friday through Saturday night. This cold airmass will
bring temperatures to between 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Afternoon temperatures in the upper 20s to near 40 for Friday can be
expected, with slightly cooler temperatures in the mid 20s to mid
30s for Saturday. The core of this cold airmass will push into the
Western & North Central NY area by Saturday morning, when 850H
temperatures will approach the -15C to -18C range. These values are
among some of the coldest 850H temperatures experienced for this
time of year per the SPC sounding climatology data. Luckily, for
those who are looking forward to the warmer weather, temperatures
will rebound starting Sunday and continue to warm through the new
work week.

With the cold temperatures pushing into the region starting late
Thursday night, lake effect and upslope snow will be possible for
Friday morning and then again for later Friday night through
Saturday night. Most of the snow is expected for areas south and
southeast of Lake Ontario. While temperatures and synoptic moisture
will be favorable for a lake response, the overlap of both is
limited to primarily Saturday morning. This will otherwise limit the
lake response off of the lakes. Even with the better potential for
snow on Saturday morning, snowfall amounts should be limited to
around a half an inch south and southeast of Lake Ontario. Shifting
winds from the northwest to the west will also cause lake snow to
become mobile through the day on Saturday. By the time some of the
better synoptic moisture comes into the region later Saturday, warm
air advection will increase 850H temperatures closer to the -10C
mark, which will limit equilibrium heights. But there may be a brief
window late Saturday evening where an organized lake band develops
southeast of Lake Ontario with increased moisture and cooler
temperatures. Uncertainty still remains at this point in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will come to an end this afternoon as a
strong cold front approaches the area. Widespread rain will move
across western and north-central NY through this evening. Rain is
expected to become moderate to heavy at times, mainly across areas
south of I-90 and produce MVFR/localized IFR conditions. An
organized area of thunderstorms may clip southwest NY, including the
hills south of Buffalo to the western Southern Tier. Gusty winds and
heavy rain are possible in thunderstorms. An isolated severe
thunderstorm is possible with the primary risk of wind gusts greater
than 50knots and large hail.

Widespread IFR conditions will slowly improve from lower
elevations to higher elevations late tonight through Friday
morning. A few light showers and drizzle will linger behind the
cold front overnight south of Lake Ontario. If precipitation
holds on long enough, it may end as a brief period of wet snow
late tonight.

VFR conditions are expected across the region Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday...Areas of MVFR CIGS with a chance of scattered light snow
showers in the morning, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds in the 10-15 knot range will produce some chop on
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early afternoon. A cold front
will then move south across the lower Great Lakes later this
afternoon, with winds becoming north behind the front and increasing
tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario
overnight through Friday morning. Lake Erie will become very choppy
as well, with near Small Craft Advisory conditions late tonight
through Friday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
         Friday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/SW
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock