Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

846
FXUS61 KBGM 260525
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
125 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjustments were made to PoPs today and tomorrow. Coverage was
increased for late today and tonight while PoPs were lowered for
some areas on Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Beginning today, the pattern becomes more active with several
rounds of rain showers and occasional thunderstorms through
mid-week.

2) There is uncertainty when a low pressure system departs the
region later this week and rain showers may linger beyond mid-
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Weak waves will move through along an upper level trough today and
Monday. These waves will be accompanied by enough moisture to
support isolated to scattered showers. Some breaks in cloud cover
and shower activity will allow for instability to increase and
isolated thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. With weak flow
above, 0-6 km shear will be 20 kts or less, storms are expected to
be non-severe and short-lived. For those spending time outdoors, any
storms that develop may contain gusty winds and even small hail as
instability extends into the hail growth zone. For late today, PoPs
were added over the Catskills for late today as most guidance show
the potential for some diurnally driven showers to develop over that
region. Then on Monday, NBM had high PoPs for the Catskills and
Poconos in an environment that will favor pulse showers and storms.
Adjustments were made to lower PoPs over these regions. Clear skies,
light winds, and some moisture from showers will favor fog
development late tonight into early Monday morning. The current
pattern over the country will allow for vertically integrated
wildfire smoke to move over the region today and especially Monday.
With this smoke expected to be so high up, there should be little to
no impact to air quality.

The upper level trough will dig over the region Tuesday. As it does,
a low pressure system will develop, though there remains some
uncertainty on where it develops and tracks. The ECMWF develops the
surface low over the Great Lakes early Tuesday and pushes it
eastward. The GFS is slower to develop the low and has it along the
coast south of the region. Either way, this system will bring the
next chance for more widespread rain showers Tuesday through at
least Wednesday. If this system were to stay more north, strong
southerly flow will advect in warmer air and lead to a more unstable
environment Tuesday afternoon, especially in areas where rain is
slower to develop. However, shear will still be weak so chances for
stronger thunderstorms is low.

Within any thunderstorms, there will be potential for heavier
rainfall rates. Otherwise, showers may become more stratiform
depending on the low`s track. Models vary on rainfall amounts during
this timeframe though localized amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches are
possible. Several dry days has resulted in soil moistures drier than
normal, so the region should be able to handle this system. WPC
maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over the region as
this system passes through.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The second half of the week remains more uncertain. The GFS has this
system quickly exiting the region and replaced with high pressure
and drier air. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has been consistent with having
this system linger over the Northeast with spotty showers Thursday
through at least Saturday. Given this, this forecast update will
maintain low chances for showers each day. Instability would be more
limited, though isolated, afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out. If this system lingers, then total rainfall amounts will
increase, potentially adding on another inch onto what will
have already fallen early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the area of KELM,KBGM and KITH after
18Z. For now, this potential is too low to mention in the
current TAF set.

Outlook:

Sunday night...Valley fog formation could occur in the pre-dawn
hours Monday at KELM with associated restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...Showers and/or thunderstorms may
result in occasional restrictions, especially in afternoons.
Valley fog possible at KELM late each night/hours up to dawn
each morning.

Thursday...Additional isolated to scattered showers and/or
thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...MWG