Medford, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS66 KMFR 260506
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1006 PM PDT Mon May 25 2026

...Aviation Discussion Updated...

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Strong southwest to west winds will be present through this
  evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake County through 9
  PM for Lake County and the Rogue Valley. 10-20% RH values will
  remain this afternoon.

* The next low is arriving today, and rain will continue to move
  inland.

* The low will keep shower chances Tuesday, first west of the
  Cascades, and then in most areas.

Satellite shows more cumulus clouds across areas west of the
Cascades with marine stratus holding along the coast down through
Curry County into Brookings. The next cold front is arriving
today, and shower activity has begun at the coast. This line of
showers will move inland through the next few hours before
starting to fall apart as it gets closer to the Cascades. Rainfall
will focus on the coast and Cascades through this evening, and
~0.25" is forecast for the coast with ~0.10"-0.20" near Crater
Lake and north through the rest of today.

Gusty winds are being reported at the coast and will continue
through the late evening. There is a Wind Advisory for most of Lake
County including Summer Lake, Fort Rock, and Valley Falls and the
Rogue Valley. These winds will start to weaken later this
evening. Please see NPWMFR for more information.

Overnight, the showers will become more scattered. Coverage will be
best east of the Cascades, and overnight there is a 60-80%
probability to have a wetting rain by 7 AM Tuesday in Lake and
eastern Klamath counties. However, showers west of the Cascades
could drop moderate rain at times. Another thing to keep in mind is
that snow levels will fall to the 4,500`-5,000` tonight which brings
the potential for a few flakes along the Cascades and higher east.
Overall, from 11 AM today through Wednesday at 11 AM, near 0.25"-
0.50" of rain could fall at the coast with near 0.10"-0.25" east of
the Cascades.

Forecast CAPEs values increase Tuesday afternoon, especially east of
the Cascades and in Modoc County. There is a 15-20% chance for a
thunderstorm in these locations. The upper low will be moving south
Tuesday, and with this track wraparound showers will be present
through the day Tuesday. Tuesday evening and overnight the showers
move across the area with more coverage, although they will be
light.

Getting back to the temperatures, today was the beginning of a 2-day
cooldown. Today`s temperatures will be near normal. Tomorrow another
drop brings highs to 10-15 degrees below normal, 50s/low 60s. The
low will continue stalling in the area, leaving us with wraparound
showers, cloudier skies and below normal temps through at least
Wednesday. For now, the low is forecast to move south Thursday, and
temperatures will return to normal or warmer. -Hermansen

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAFS...MVFR and areas of IFR will continue at the
coast with rain showers tonight. Inland, tonight, expect rain
showers, mountain obscurations, and lowering ceilings with areas of
MVFR, mainly from the Cascades west but locally east of the
Cascades. These conditions will persist into Tuesday morning, then
gradually improve in the late morning and afternoon to VFR with
areas of higher mountain obscurations. Areas of MVFR may redevelop
(20-30% chance) late Tuesday evening along the coast and into the
Umpqua Valley.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, May 25, 2026...The two main
changes this afternoon were to upgrade to a hazardous seas warning
for the outer waters beyond 40 nm from shore during Tuesday, and
extend a Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday and Wednesday night
(excepting the inner waters north of Cape Blanco where steep seas
will still end early Wednesday morning).

A cold front will continue through the waters during the remainder
of this afternoon bringing rain and increasing seas. Seas have
become steep again, with the strongest south winds occurring north
of Cape Blanco. Steep, northwest swell builds in strongly behind the
front, reaching a peak on Tuesday. These west-northwest swell
dominated seas are expected to peak at around 13 to 18 ft at 14
seconds. Diminishing seas are expected to remain steep Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

After brief, slight improvement, high pressure offshore and
lingering low pressure inland will again bring increasing north
winds on Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds likely to
occur south of Gold Beach. The gusty north winds and a long period
west-northwest swell will continue steep seas Wednesday night, and
possibly during Thursday and Thursday night also. Conditions may
briefly improve on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, May 25,
2026...Elevated to critical fire weather risk today into this
evening due to a combination of strong, gusty winds and low
relative humidity.

A cold front will move onshore today. Strong, gusty S-SW winds
(20-30 mph) will develop in advance of the front this
afternoon/evening east of the Cascades and in portions of northern
California, where gusts of 35-40 mph will be common, even up to 45
mph in some areas of Lake/Modoc counties. Afternoon humidity in
these areas could drop to 10-20% for at least a few hours and
fuels there are dry enough that if ignitions were to occur, fire
would be able to spread rapidly. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in
effect from 1-11 pm PDT for southeastern Modoc County in
California and from 1-8 pm PDT for most of Lake County in Oregon.
Fire conditions are also elevated in areas where it turns
breezy/windy this afternoon, but fuel receptiveness is still on
the moderate side and humidity levels are just a bit high to
warrant additional fire weather headlines. There is also a Wind
Advisory through 7 PM for the Rogue Valley with gusts in the
40-45 mph range.

Models are showing a substantial increase in humidity and the
potential for wetting rainfall, especially east of the Cascades
for the rest of the week (Tue-Fri). As such, fire danger should
lower significantly in the coming days. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ370-
     376.

&&

$$