Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

481
FXUS62 KCHS 261747
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
147 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR
LIKELY SATURDAY...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All Key Messages and sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Near record warmth Friday.

- 2) Dangerous fire weather conditions with extreme fire
  behavior likely Saturday. Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag
  Warnings are likely to be issued.

- 3) Hazardous conditions are likely on Lake Moultrie late
  Friday night into Saturday.

- 3) Continued dry with above normal temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record warmth Friday.
A anomalously strong 588 DM ridge centered over northern Mexico
into Southwest Texas will build east through Friday. Mid-level
temperatures will respond with forecast soundings showing 850
hPa temperatures climbing to around 15C with a pronounced
capping/subsidence inversion noted. While a robust sea breeze
will likely take shape by mid-afternoon and move steadily inland
through the evening hours, a very warm day is likely with highs
poised to soar into the upper 80s/lower 90s away from the coast.
The daily record high at all three climate sites could be
challenged with KCHS and KSAV the most likely to fall. See the
climate section below for more specific details. Coastal areas
will remain quite a bit cooler with the beaches likely only
topping out in the upper 60s/lower 70s before the sea breeze
begins to propagate inland.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous fire weather conditions with extreme
fire behavior likely Saturday. Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag
Warnings are likely to be issued.

A dangerous and potentially high-impact fire event could be
setting up for Saturday. A strong cold front is poised to drop
through the area late Friday night and should located well to
the south by daybreak Saturday. Dewpoints are expected to mix
out into the lower 20s inland to the upper 30s/lower 40s along
the immediate coast. Local adjustments were made to lower
dewpoints given models, in particular the NBM, tend to be too
wet in post frontal regimes, especially with severe to extreme
drought conditions in place. Gusty winds will occur behind the
front with gusts expected to peak in the 20-30 mph range inland
with 25-35 mph at the coast. Minimum RH values should bottom out
in the 18-28% range, possibly a tad higher right at the immediate
coast where a bit more of an onshore/parallel flow will prevail.
The combination of gusty winds, low RH and critically dry fuels
owing to the worsening drought situation suggests dangerous
fire weather conditions are likely to occur for much of the day
Saturday. State, military and federal land management agencies
have already observed some extreme fire behavior with controlled
burns and a few wildfires over the past few days (mainly once
RH drops below 60%) and with the situation likely to get worsen
Saturday, the fire situation could become rather volatile with
high-impact even if the highest winds and lowest RH do not
perfectly align.

Per coordination with neighboring NWS offices as well as state
and federal partners, a Fire Weather Watch will likely be
issued for most, if not all, of the Lowcountry and Southeast
Georgia overnight Refer to the Georgia and South Carolina
Forestry Commissions for any burn bans are in effect.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous conditions are likely on Lake Moultrie
late Friday night into Saturday.

Winds will increase on Lake Moultrie late Friday night into
Saturday behind a southward moving cold front. Conditions could
get hazardous on the open lake waters with winds reaching as
high as 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wave action could be
significant with waves reaching 2-3 ft at times, especially over
the central and southern portions of the lake. A Lake Wind
Advisory will likely be needed.


KEY MESSAGE 4: Continued dry with above normal temperatures
next week.

High pressure to the north will gradually shift east into the
Atlantic next week. A southerly return flow coupled with a
building upper ridge will support dry conditions with above
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
26/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 27/18z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds behind a dry cold front
on Saturday. Gusts could exceed 20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
The main concern through the weekend is the increasing
potential for gales late Friday night into Saturday as a cold
front shifts south through the area. The combination of post
frontal cold air advection coupled with a typical pinching of
the pressure gradient with building high pressure to the north
should support about a 12-18 hour period of gale conditions.
Peak winds should occur Saturday morning where winds could
reach as high as 25-30 kt with gusts 35-40 kt nearshore and
30-35 kt offshore with gusts 40-45 kt offshore. Seas will build
quickly in the northeasterly flow, peaking 6-9 ft nearshore
waters and 9-12 ft over the Georgia offshore waters Saturday
night. Conditions will steadily improve Sunday as the pressure
gradient relaxes, although it may take until Monday before seas
drop below 6 ft. Per coordination with neighboring offices, Gale
Watches have been posted for all waters, including the Charleston
Harbor from late Friday night into Saturday, except into
Saturday night for the Georgia offshore waters.

High Surf: Breaking wave heights could reach 5-6 ft along parts
of the Georgia coast Saturday afternoon into Sunday. A High Surf
Advisory may be needed.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 81/2021
KSAV: 89/2021

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for AMZ330.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for AMZ350-352-354.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
     for AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST