Lexington, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS62 KCAE 241132
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
632 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the overall outlook for the incoming
winter storm. Confidence gradually increases in potential need
for Cold Weather products early in the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Freezing rain stating early tonight, continuing into Sunday
     is expected to cause hazardous travel and power outages with
     the greatest impacts north of I-20.

- 2) Very cold air funnels into the region behind the weekends winter
     storm with values near Cold Weather Advisory criteria
     possible multiple days next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Freezing rain stating early tonight, continuing
into Sunday is expected to cause hazardous travel and power
outages with the greatest impacts north of I-20.

Overview: No significant change has been made to the Ice Storm
Warning along and north of I-20 or the Winter Weather Advisory
in the southern forecast area this forecast cycle. Freezing rain
continues to be expected across the FA starting early tonight,
continuing into Sunday morning where significant ice
accumulations of one quarter to a half of an inch are expected
along and north of I-20 (especially toward Lancaster, Fairfield,
and Newberry Counties), while lesser amounts are expected in
the southern part of the forecast area due to warming
temperatures Sunday morning and afternoon. Some sleet
accumulations up to around half of an inch to three quarters of
an inch could be possible as well toward the northern FA.

Potential Impacts: An ice storm will track across the Southeast
starting early tonight, continuing into Sunday. Significant ice
accumulations are expected to cause hazardous travel, downed
tree limbs, and power outages across the FA. The greatest threat
for these hazards will be along and north of the I-20 corridor
where accumulations over one quarter of an inch are most likely.
Isolated power outages and downed tree limbs cannot be ruled
out further south, but less accumulation should aid in lessening
the chances for these impacts. Hazardous travel should still be
expected in the Winter Weather Advisory area, though travel
conditions here may improve through the day Sunday as the wedge
front lifts a bit north and temperatures warm to above freezing.

To further emphasize, very challenging travel conditions are
expected Sunday morning, especially along and north of I-20. If
light freezing rain or freezing drizzle continues during the
afternoon or evening hours, these hazardous conditions will
persist as well so travel is strong discouraged.

Forecast Challenges: As the push of WAA and isentropic lift
moves over the surface wedge late Saturday afternoon and into
the evening, periods of sleet or rain could be possible, but
recent high-res model guidance indicates dewpoint depressions in
excess of 15-20F will need to be overcome initially, likely
leading to a start time of wintry precip after 7-10 PM as
temperatures fall closer to the initially 28-31F wetbulb
temperatures. Once precip begins reaching the surface, the
dominant precip type is expected to be freezing rain as the 10C
warm nose moves in with a shallow sub-freezing layer. As the
push of WAA aloft initially builds in, periods of sleet could be
possible north of the I-20 corridor early in the night, but
this is expected to transition to freezing rain as the inversion
grows stronger. Freezing rain then likely continues into Sunday
morning across the FA.

Greater uncertainty remains as we continue through the late
morning hours and the remainder of Sunday as to how far north
the wedge front will lift as a weak surface low pushes in, and
thus if precipitation will transition from freezing
rain/freezing drizzle to rain/drizzle. The bulk of guidance
agrees that areas mainly south of the I-20 corridor will
gradually rise above freezing through the day Sunday, aiding in
melting ice accumulations here and transitioning precip to rain.
More uncertainty exists along the I-20 corridor and north where
large IQR spreads for temperatures remain. With this said, the
00z HRRR and recent 00Z HREF mean solution have begun hinting at
the wedge holding strong in the aforementioned area (which
lines up closer to climatology) with temperatures barely
reaching above freezing. Have continued to lean toward this
cooler guidance as high-res soundings indicate saturated
profiles will remain through the afternoon and into the evening
Sunday with ongoing 285-295K isentropic lift, which generally
leads to continuing light precip to reinforce the wedge. With
this thinking, periods of drizzle or freezing drizzle could
continue into the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. This could
bring further ice accumulations for areas that remain
near/below freezing throughout the day. The cold front then is
expected to push in Sunday evening where thunder remains
possible in the southern FA with weak elevated instability on
top of the pronounced warm nose.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Very cold air funnels into the region behind the
weekends winter storm with values near Cold Weather Advisory
criteria possible multiple days next week.

Surface high pressure and an overall troughing pattern funnels
in arctic air into the region over the work week, bringing well
below temperatures. Afternoon highs much of the work week are
expected to struggle into the 40s while multiple chilly nights
are expected. The first concern comes Monday night and into
Tuesday morning where overnight lows into the low to upper teens
are possible (probabilities for temperatures less than 15F are
up to 40%). This has led to increasing confidence that a Cold
Weather Advisory may be needed and could possibly bring surface
refreezing concerns, though confidence in this is not as high.
After this, multiple nights into the mid week could have
temperatures/wind chills near Cold Weather Advisory criteria,
but values are expected to remain above this at this time.
Thursday night into Friday morning may be the next chance where
probabilities have increased for nearing this criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue for at least the next 6-8 hours but
beyond that MVFR and IFR conditions look increasingly likely.

Our well-advertised cold-air damming setup has arrived across
the area. This hasn`t yielded our typical ceiling restrictions
just yet as the low-level airmass is extremely dry. However,
mid-level moisture continues to increase as the system shifts
eastward towards us from the west and cloud cover is widespread
across the area. Northeasterly winds are noted at all sites,
with winds 8-10 knots common. This will continue today with some
gusts up to 18-22 knots likely at times today given a
strengthening pressure gradient. By this evening, lift and low-
level moisture are forecast to continue increasing, with
ceilings falling to MVFR levels shortly after 00z.
Precipitation will quickly develop, especially near the
Augusta/Columbia sites, and sleet and freezing rain should
become the dominant p-types for the night. Sleet is probably
something that will only impact the sites early in the evening
as the column will saturate quickly while a robust warm nose
remains in place. The rain rates look fairly light - similar to
what we get with wedges often times. It is counter intuitive
but these lighter rains are more dangerous in freezing rain
setups as that kind of rainfall accumulates on surfaces very
efficiently. All in all, after 00z, aviation interests in the
area should prepare for impactful weather, including
accumulation freezing rain and MVFR/IFR ceilings. Orangeburg
will likely see the ceiling issues but the timing of freezing
rain/sleet is a little more uncertain. Expecting it to get going
there sometime in the 05z-08z timeframe, with freezing rain
becoming impactful as the forecast period comes to a close.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The winter storm ramps up Saturday
night through Sunday and likely to bring restrictions as sleet
and freezing rain are likely to impact terminals and
restrictions in cigs/vsbys likely.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
     for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-037-115-116.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Monday for SCZ035-038-041-135>137.
GA...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
     for GAZ040-063>065.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Monday for GAZ077.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...82