Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS64 KOHX 261122
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will resume Sunday through Tuesday with
  heat indices in the 100s most areas west of the Cumberland
  Plateau. It is becoming increasingly likely that a Heat Advisory
  will be needed on Monday, and perhaps again on Tuesday. Cooler
  and less humid air will arrive by Wednesday and linger through
  next weekend.

- There are generally low rain and storm chances Sunday night and
  Monday, but some isolated spots could still get a downpour.
  There is an isolated risk of severe weather (level 1/5) this
  afternoon and evening. Rain chances the remainder of the week
  are very low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

After a generally quiet evening of radar activity, a few cells
are starting to develop near the TN/KY line, and the HRRR suggests
that additional development is likely during the overnight
period. We can`t completely rule out additional storms on Sunday,
but the HRRR has been quite inconsistent from run-to-run. At this
time, we have low PoPs in the grids for some areas mainly east of
I-65 for tomorrow, but this could also change in favor of more
widespread development. Forecast models do hint at MCS remnants
impacting the mid state on Monday, and the NBM output is also
showing something curious. For example, for BNA, the 19Z NBM is
showing a 38% chance of measurable rainfall from 00Z Monday until
00Z Tuesday, but also a 16% chance of 1"+, a 13% chance of 2"+ and
a 9% chance of 3"+. The best way to interpret this is simply to
say that there are generally low PoPs for Sunday night and
especially Monday, but impacted areas could also see isolated
very heavy rainfall. In the meantime, a saturated air mass has
come back to us. The 00Z sounding from OHX shows a SBCAPE of
2,213 J/kg (despite a stable layer below 850 mb), a Lifted Index
of -5, and near-record Precipitable Water of 2.14". Indeed, the
heat and humidity will return on Sunday, with heat indices likely
reaching the low 100s many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Monday and Tuesday look to be even hotter, and it is becoming
increasingly likely that a Heat Advisory will be needed for Monday
and perhaps again Tuesday. The good news is that Middle Tennessee
isn`t outlooked for severe storms for the foreseeable future, and
the WPC`s excessive rainfall outlooks do not include the mid
state after tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Confidence is growing that we will enjoy a frontal passage late
Tuesday or Tuesday evening that will allow drier, cooler air to
spread into the mid state. This would bring an end to the threat
of excessive heat, and also suppress rain chances for the
remainder of the week. Near normal temperatures are likely to last
through next weekend, while rain and storm chances look to
increase by next weekend as a low pressure system tracks along the
Gulf Coast and spreads deeper moisture into Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Showers will continue to move through the area this morning, with
TSRA chances increasing in the afternoon and evening. Ceilings
should lift and vsby improve around 14z this morning, and return
again to MVFR/IFR conditions around 06z on the 27th. Winds will
be generally light/calm thru the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  75  95  79 /  10  20  30  10
Clarksville    93  75  96  78 /  10  20  40   0
Crossville     85  68  88  72 /  10  10  20  10
Columbia       92  73  95  76 /  10  20  40  10
Cookeville     87  70  89  74 /  20  20  30  10
Jamestown      85  68  88  73 /  10  20  20  10
Lawrenceburg   90  72  93  75 /  10  20  40  10
Murfreesboro   92  73  95  76 /  20  20  30   0
Waverly        92  74  96  76 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley