Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

371
FXUS64 KBRO 241200 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
600 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

* First Arctic cold front of 2026 passes through South Texas
  Saturday afternoon. No frozen precipitation is expected at this
  time, but will continue to be monitored.

* The coldest air arrives Sunday evening into Tuesday morning, with
  freezing temperatures and extreme wind chills expected both Monday
  and Tuesday mornings.

* Multiple Watches, Advisories, and Warnings are expected to be
  issued over the next 24 to 48 hours for life-threatening cold
  weather impacts Sunday through Tuesday morning. Plan to protect
  people, pets, plants, and pipes and limit exposure to all for
  multiple days.

* Hazardous boating and swimming conditions are expected into mid-
  week following the frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Arctic air continues to pour south, expected to push the cold
front across the border by late Saturday afternoon. Model guidance
is finally coming into agreement on the ridge settling into
central Texas by Monday night and the northern Gulf into Tuesday,
extending cold impacts into mid-week. Southerly winds return
briefly Tuesday afternoon before the next front on Wednesday,
which may stall just south of the border through the remainder of
the week.

Expect a warm and breezy start to Saturday, with temperatures
free-falling quickly after the front runs for the border through
the afternoon. Overall, we are still maintaining a 30-35 degree
temperature drop from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning,
although a good chunk of that may occur within the first hour or
two after the front passes. NBM was much too warm Saturday
afternoon into Sunday so have trimmed heavily. Lows Sunday
morning into the low to mid 30s are expected across the
ranchlands. A freeze across the ranchlands cannot be ruled out for
isolated locations. Have trimmed temperatures a lot again on
Sunday afternoon from NBM with CAA expected to mostly win out
against any sunshine or clearing skies from west to east. Lows
Sunday night into Monday morning will drop below freezing for all
inland locations after 1-4 AM, below 25 degrees across the
ranchlands and upper 20s to low 30s across the RGV. Highs on
Monday may only reach the mid to upper 40s for most locations
despite abundant sunshine inland. Clearing skies and building high
pressure set up another below-freezing night, even colder than
Sunday night, for Monday night into Tuesday morning due to the
last gasp of CAA and very efficient radiational cooling. High
temperatures gradually warm back towards normal by late week with
below normal lows each morning.

POPs have generally diminished to along and just behind the front
as the surface low pushes offshore, quickly shifting POPs toward
the coast into Sunday morning. No freezing precipitation is
anticipated, however, some model guidance has shifted faster and
colder Saturday night and northern offices have noted a stronger
front this evening than NBM. Winter Wx Advisories and Winter
Storm Watches and Warnings are likely going out north of our CWA.
We will continue to monitor the potential for freezing drizzle or
rain across the ranchlands late Saturday night. The main impact of
this event locally still continues to be dangerous wind chills
and cold impacts to people, pets, plants, and pipes through
Tuesday morning.

Wind Chill values drop towards 30 degrees across the ranchlands
early Sunday, with values below 15 degrees early Monday and Tuesday.
Wind Chill values drop below 20 degrees across the Rio Grande
Valley early Monday and near 20 to 25 degrees Tuesday. Currently
there are Freeze Watches and Extreme Cold Watches in place, by the
end of the weekend, Cold Weather Advisories, Freeze Warnings, and
Extreme Cold Warnings may all be issued, with additional Freeze
and Extreme Cold Watches placed for Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Hazardous beach conditions will bring additional
advisories and statements into next week.

The persistent CAA down the Laguna Madre will likely result in
cold-stunned sea turtles, especially late Sunday into Tuesday,
with air temperatures above the bay generally remaining near or
below 50 degrees from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.
Pelicans often land on coastal bridges during these events,
especially when there is light rainfall or drizzle, such as
Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon.

Finally, there may be some patchy fog and pockets of dense fog
late tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A cold front is forecast to move through the area later today,
bringing a gusty winds and a shift toward westerly then northerly
winds. Skies will likely be overcast to broken through much of the
day, with ceilings at VFR to MVFR levels. Ceilings will likely
lower this evening, with MVFR to IFR ceilings likely overnight.

Some light rain along the coast will likely continue for the next
couple hours, with minimal impacts at BRO and HRL. Low (20%) rain
chances will return this evening and and continue overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A strong cold front arrives Saturday afternoon with adverse marine
conditions through Monday night. Marine conditions improve Tuesday
with a brief return of southerly winds until the next front
Wednesday into Thursday. The chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms arrives ahead of the front on Saturday, with light
rain and drizzle continuing along the lower Texas coast through
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  43  50  31 /  10  30  10   0
HARLINGEN               78  40  50  29 /  20  40  10   0
MCALLEN                 78  43  50  32 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  41  50  30 /  10  30   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  49  51  38 /  20  40  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  43  49  31 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

     Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning
     for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday afternoon
     for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Monday
     for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE