Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

749
FXUS64 KLUB 261054
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
554 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

 - Much cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday with
   widespread rainfall.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across
   the region on Tuesday, some of which could produce locally heavy
   rainfall.

 - Storm chances continue Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The convective forecast for Tuesday remains nebulous at best. Large
scale ascent will continue to spread overhead through the early
morning hours on Tuesday associated with a short wave trough
currently moving across New Mexico. A secondary short wave trough
will rotate overhead from the morning into the early afternoon
hours. At the same time, an upper level jet streak on the order of
50-60kt rotating with the short wave. Near meridional flow will
exist from the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere as these
short waves take on an increasingly negative tilt. However, this
will place the region beneath the entrance region of the upper
level jet streak. Moist isentropic ascent will also be on the
increase during the early morning hours contributing to developing
convection in the pre-dawn hours. Because of the isentropic
ascent, elevated parcels will have an unstable atmosphere to take
advantage of. Current model soundings show anywhere between 500
and 1500 J/kg of elevated instability. Deep layer shear will
continue to be very weak which will lead to a very low severe
threat during the morning hours. Precipitable water values will
climb above the 90th percentile bringing more of a heavy rain
threat than severe threat. However, the expected scattered nature
of the convection may only bring localized heavy rainfall instead
of widespread heavy rainfall. Afternoon convection potential is
highly uncertain because of the morning activity. The secondary
short wave will be moving overhead continuing the large scale
ascent under a very moist atmosphere. Cool surface temperatures
may keep the surface instability weak and capped during the
afternoon. If some clearing can occur on the caprock, then
differential heating would create an unstable atmosphere capable
of producing deeper convection. CAM guidance at 00Z is not too
excited on convective redevelopment this afternoon on the caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A lingering short wave trough on Wednesday may bring thunderstorms
to areas mostly off the caprock. Much of the caprock will be under
subsidence in the wake of this short wave. Broad southeasterly flow
will keep the moisture pumped into the area leading to an unstable
atmosphere in the afternoon. However, deep layer flow will continue
to be very weak by May standards. Therefore, severe chances will
again be low for Wednesday. Short wave ridging will most likely keep
Thursday void of any precipitation. Mid and upper level flow will
back to the southwest again this weekend ushering in another active
pattern of weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A broad shield of rain and embedded TSTMs continues to progress
east into W TX this morning, with an expectation for MVFR CIGs to
accompany the system. TEMPO groups have been adjusted to reflect
the best timing for TSTMs, with mainly rain forecast into the
afternoon along with reductions to CIGs/VSBYs. Improvements to
CIGs/VSBYs should arrive this evening as the system exits W TX,
with a return to MVFR stratus tonight. Winds will remain light
and out of the southeast otherwise for this TAF period.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09