Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS61 KAKQ 241516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1016 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Cold Weather Advisory has been extended in time until 12PM
today as wind chills remain in the low-end negatives to single
digits this morning and early afternoon.

Winter Storm Warnings continue for the majority of the region
this afternoon through Sunday night for coastal areas and Monday
evening for inland areas, excluding far northeast North
Carolina. Winter Weather Advisories continue for far
northeastern North Carolina this afternoon into Sunday
afternoon. Confidence is high in a devastating winter storm for
a large portion of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong, damaging winter storm will impact the region this
evening through Sunday night with snow, sleet, freezing rain,
and rain expected.

2) A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast
area this morning ahead of the winter storm as wind chills drop to
the single digits or low-end negatives behind a strong Arctic front.

3) A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is expected
beginning this morning and persisting much of next week with the
potential for temperatures to remain below freezing for several
days. Impacts from the winter storm are likely to last well into
next week due to the very cold temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 930 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A devastating winter storm for a large portion of
the area will impact the region this afternoon/evening through
Sunday night with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain expected.

Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories continue unchanged with this
forecast cycle.

A strong Arctic front is crossing the area early this morning,
setting the stage for a very impactful winter storm across the
region. Surface analysis shows 1045mb high pressure centered over
eastern IA early this morning with ridging extending well to the
east over central PA and southward east of the Appalachians, setting
up a classic Cold Air Damming (CAD) pressure pattern. Surface low
pressure has started to develop over south TX with an inverted
trough already taking shape west of the Appalachians. These features
will sharpen through the morning and into the afternoon hours,
allowing deep moisture to spread northeast toward the local area.
Very cold air will be in place today with high temperatures only
making it into the 20s for most of the area with temps around 30
degrees for NE NC. Overrunning moisture will allow precip to spread
from west to east across the region late this afternoon and
especially this evening and tonight. Secondary low pressure forms
off the Carolina coast tonight and lifts NE on Sunday. Still expect
the initial p-type to be snow at the onset with the potential for
quick accumulation given the very cold surface temperatures and cold
ground.

00z models have trended a bit colder overnight tonight with mixed
precip taking a bit longer to lift northward. Expect sleet to mix
with snow across the southern third of the area by midnight and
nearing the I-64 corridor by 3-4am. The majority of the snow and
sleet accumulations will occur overnight with the highest snow/sleet
totals still expected across the north and northwest portions of the
area. Snow/sleet totals drop off quickly with southeastward extent.
The warm nose aloft strengthens by sunrise with freezing rain
spreading northward into the Piedmont. Precip will transition to
mostly freezing rain near and west of I-95 with some sleet possibly
lingering across the far NW (Fluvanna/Louisa vicinity). 00z guidance
has continued to trend slightly downward with respect to overall QPF
with most areas seeing 1.5-2" of liquid equivalent through the event
(highest in the Piedmont and lowest across NE NC). Ice accumulations
have decreased (very) slightly from previous forecasts with the
somewhat lower QPF and a bit more cold air tonight. Still expecting
a large ice impact footprint with many areas west of the bay seeing
0.25-0.5" of ice accrual. The highest ice totals (>0.5") continue to
be focused along and near the I-85 and I-95 corridors from near
Richmond south to the Tri-Cities and Emporia. Significant ice
accrual will lead to devastating impacts and widespread power
outages and tree damage. Very cold temperatures and windy conditions
into early next week will lead to long lasting impacts. Winds pick
up on Monday as the system departs, continuing the threat of
additional tree damage and power outages.

Latest guidance shows a faster transition to plain rain for NE NC
and SE VA Sunday morning. There remains some uncertainty as to how
far inland this warmer air will spread but it appears to set up near
or just east of the I-95 corridor by Sunday afternoon. This divide
may creep back to the east after sunset but the eastern third of the
area will likely stay above freezing until coastal low pressure
pulls away from the region and colder air moves back in.



KEY MESSAGE 2...A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the
entire forecast area this morning ahead of the winter storm as wind
chills drop to the single digits or negative single digits behind a
strong Arctic front.

As of 930AM, wind chills remain in the single digits to low-end
negatives this morning only very slowly rising. As a result, the
Cold Weather Advisory has been extended until 12PM today.

Surface observations show increasing winds and plummeting
temperatures/wind chills across the region this morning in the wake
of the Arctic front. Single digit wind chills spread southward into
NC by sunrise with negative single digits expected for the northern
half of the area. N and NNE winds are averaging 10-15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph. Apparent temps creep back up by late morning to early
afternoon as winds start to slack off but the vast majority of the
area will remain in the 15-20 degree wind chill range through the
afternoon.



KEY MESSAGE 3...A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is
expected beginning this morning and persisting much of next week
with the potential for temperatures to remain below freezing for
several days. Impacts from the winter storm are likely to last well
into next week due to the very cold temperatures.

Behind the winter storm this weekend, strong high pressure (1030+
mb) from the Canadian plains will shift over the SE CONUS with
potent upper level troughing. The combination of these features will
keep very cold temperatures over the area through much of next week.
This, along with any snowpack/ice, will likely keep high
temperatures below freezing for an extended period of time over much
of the area. Low temperatures Tuesday night/Wednesday AM will likely
be the coldest we have seen in some time, with readings ranging from
around 0 across the NW Piedmont, to single digits for much of the
inland forecast area, and teens closer to the coast/SE. These cold
temperatures, combined with a W to NW breeze, will result in wind
chills ranging from -10 to -5 inland and 0 to 10 across the
southeast and along the coast. Extreme Cold headlines will likely be
needed for portions of the area with Cold Weather Advisories
elsewhere. Overnight lows in the single digits and teens will be
common for the remainder of the week. Long term model guidance
continues to show the potential for another Arctic blast by midweek,
potentially sending our high temperatures back into the 20s by
Thursday and Friday with overnight lows into the mid to lower single
digits.

This prolonged period of very cold temperatures behind the winter
storm could be quite dangerous for those without power. It is
important that all take precautions in event that power is unable to
be restored in a timely manner.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening with
cloud bases gradually lowering throughout the day to 8-12kft
AGL by 21z. The well advertised winter storm will begin to
impact the terminals after 00z, with snow expected to begin at
RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF between 01-04z, with a rain/snow/sleet mix
possible at ECG at the onset before precip changes to rain. The
snow will increase in intensity by 04-06z (possibly becoming
moderate-heavy at times with 1/4-1/2SM VSBY at RIC/SBY). A quick
changeover to sleet then plain rain is expected at ORF/PHF
between 05-08z Sunday AM (and at SBY later Sunday AM). However,
impacts will be significant at RIC with precip changing to sleet
(possibly heavy at times) then freezing rain as temps likely
don`t get above 32F throughout the day. FZRA will continue at
RIC through 03-06z Monday before finally diminishing. VSBYs of
1/2-1 1/2SM are likely in snow, with 1-3SM VSBYs in sleet. CIGs
will drop to IFR or LIFR late tonight with LIFR/IFR CIGs
continuing through Sun and Sun night. N-NE winds of ~15 kt with
gusts to 20-30 kt (highest at the coast) will continue through
the morning/midday before diminishing slightly during the aftn.
However, winds will remain gusty through the rest of the TAF
period.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions return on Monday and continue
through the middle of the week. There is a low-end chance of
light snow Wed night-Thu AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1015 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- All Gale Warnings have expired as of 10 AM. A Freezing Spray
  Advisory is now in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic
  coastal waters north of the VA/NC border through 1 PM.

- Strong winds continue Sunday (NE to E) as developing coastal
  low pressure slowly lifts NE offshore, and have issued a Gale
  Watch for the Ocean N of Cape Charles.

- Another period of Gale Warnings are likely to be needed for
  much of the area Monday night and early Tuesday with NW winds.

Winds have decreased below Gale thresholds for all areas as of
10 AM and have been replaced by SCAs. Seas rapidly increased
from 2-3 ft prior to midnight, to 5-7 ft N, and 7-10 ft S early
this morning. By the aftn, winds become NE and will avg 15-20
kt, allowing for diminishing waves/seas, though all but the far
northern coastal waters should stay at or above 5 ft into
tonight. Current headlines have the SCAs end later in the aftn
for the Bay N of New Pt Comfort given 6-12 hrs with sub- SCA
level winds. For the lower Bay/mouth of the Bay the lull will be
shorter so have extended SCAs through Sunday aftn. A Freezing
Spray Advisory is in effect for the Bay and coastal waters north
of the VA/NC border through 10 AM. Have raised a Gale Watch for
35 kt gusts Sunday for the Ocean N of Cape Charles as the sfc
low deepens rapidly while lifting NNE. Winds shift around to
W-NW on the backside of the system Monday. With a very cold
airmass, and strong pressure rises, strong SCAs to low-end Gales
are likely later Monday through Monday night. Waves in the Bay
build back to 3-5 ft, with seas 5-7 ft. Additional Freezing
Spray Advisories are likely to be needed Monday night and
Tuesday, as Arctic high pressure quickly builds across the
eastern CONUS. Conditions calm down thereafter.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MDZ021>025.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MDZ021.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for MDZ022>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NCZ012>014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-096-509>524.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for VAZ095-097>100-
     525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     631-650.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ638.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMC/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...AJZ/LKB/MAM