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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 051626
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Weak lee troughing
development across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough
ejects into the Great Plains will promote a favorable dry, downslope
environment across portions of eastern NM and TX Permian Basin
today. West-northwest winds of 15 mph combined with relative
humidity in the 15-20% range are expected, but recent precipitation,
relatively cool conditions and unreceptive fuels should limit
broader fire weather concerns.
..Williams.. 12/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the
CONUS. A period of westerly downslope flow can be expected across
eastern New Mexico into western Texas as a weak lee-side low
develops. Some overlap of relative humidity reductions around 15-20
percent will be possible for a couple of hours in the afternoon.
However, recent cool and wet conditions across the southern High
Plains have improved status of fuels and will mitigate any
widespread fire weather concerns.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 051947
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. Deep layer
west-northwest flow over the central/southern Rockies increases
through Day 2/Saturday as an upstream mid-level short wave
approaches the Great Plains. A strengthening lee trough across the
central/southern Plains combined with the broad northwesterly flow
aloft should promote a dry and breezy downslope regime across
southeastern NM and TX Permian Basin region Saturday. A few hours of
sustained west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity
below 15% are likely, although fuels will remain largely unreceptive
to wildfire spread, limiting the fire weather threat.
..Williams.. 12/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Saturday.
Strengthening westerly flow aloft will overspread the
northern/central Rockies as the next mid-level wave shifts out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. A stronger lee
cyclone is progged to develop across the central Plains. This will
likely develop areas of overlap of dry/windy conditions across the
southern High Plains. However, a lack of receptive fuels with recent
wet/cool conditions precludes the need to include any areas.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 052152
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Model guidance consensus indicates little deviation in the overall
upper-level pattern across CONUS through next week. Ridging nudges
further into CA and the Southwest while troughing persists across
the eastern U.S. A warming and drying trend under the ridge should
continue across the much of the Southwest, CA and Southern Plains
through much of next week while colder/wetter conditions exist
across the eastern U.S., largely mitigating fire weather threats. A
dry cold front will initially shutter fire weather concerns across
the Southern Plains Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday, with relatively warm
temperatures returning midweek contributing to drying of fuels
across the region. A strengthening polar jet across the Northern
Rockies and central/northern Plains and subsequent stronger surface
cyclogenesis in the Central Plains could promote dry and breezy
conditions across eastern NM/West TX vicinity on Day 7/Thursday.
However, uncertainty in fuels and relative humidity reductions
limits confidence in introducing critical fire weather probabilities
at this time.
..Williams.. 12/05/2025
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