Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 26 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Southwest to the Central Rockies and Southern High Plains...
Expect some of the overnight activity impacting the region to
remain ongoing beyond 12Z, with some potential for additional
flooding concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle into the mid to late morning. Additional heavy
rains should be short-lived however, with the consensus of the
CAMs showing storms diminishing by late morning as the associated
shortwave energy and deeper plume of moisture lift out to the
northeast. However, given the antecedent soil conditions and some
high probabilities in both the HREF and REFS for additional amounts
of 1-2 inches, maintained a Slight extending from southeastern New
Mexico to the southern Panhandle Region. The Slight Risk was also
extended south into parts of West Texas, where activity later in
the day is expected to produce some very localized heavy amounts
(1-2 inches) including areas where 3-hr FFGs are under an inch.

Back to the north and west, a mid-to-upper level shortwave will
lift out of the Southwest, encouraging afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms, especially across portions of eastern
Arizona, southeastern Utah, and Colorado. The HREF and REFS
generally agree that the greater potential for localized heavier
amounts will center from southeastern Utah into southwestern
Colorado.

...Central Plains...
Shortwave energy and plenty of moisture emanating from the
Southwest will spread across the region later today into the
evening. While instability will remain weak and soil conditions
less sensitive, deep saturation though the air column will support
efficient rainfall and some portions of the area may see amounts
high enough to raise at least some isolated runoff concerns. Both
the HREF and REFS indicate that areas near the central Kansas-
Nebraska border northeast to the northern Nebraska-Iowa border
could see amounts over 2 inches.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Rain along the northern and northwestern side of strengthening
nor'easter will likely begin to spread inland by late today as the
system deepens and begins to track north. While the heaviest
amounts are expected to remain offshore, some coastal areas from
New Jersey to southern New England could begin to see some
localized heavy totals by Saturday morning.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt