Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
136 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACIANS...

Most guidance is supportive of perhaps several rounds of moderate
rain across the Marginal Risk area, preceding a more focused
linear complex progged to move through the discussion area from
west to east in the 12Z-00Z timeframe. The combination of preceding
rainfall, moistening/destabilizing environment (via advection
processes), and locally sensitive ground conditions/urban areas are
all suggestive of isolated excessive runoff concerns. The extent
of icing/freezing conditions across the southern Appalachians are
likely to hinder runoff, but decided to keep the Marginal Risk area
there for the sake of consistency. Only changes to the ongoing
forecast are a slight expansion of Marginal southeastward into
west-central/central Alabama (southwest of Birmingham), where
modeled convective trends suggest an uptick in QPF/flash flood
potential (albeit isolated).

Cook


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt